Climate change is gradually altering the geographical spread of malaria across Africa, driving up transmission in cooler, higher-elevation regions while lowering it in hotter areas. A study published in Nature reveals that while historical global warming has caused a slight net rise in cases overall, local mosquito control efforts continue to have a far greater impact.
How Warming Shifts Africa’s Malaria Map
Global temperature increases since pre-industrial times are redrawing the distribution of malaria across the African continent. Researchers analyzing more than a century of data combined with climate attribution models found that rising warmth pushes transmission away from extremely hot zones and into cooler areas that were previously too cold to sustain large populations of malaria-carrying mosquitoes according to a study published in Nature.
The study, which examined childhood malaria prevalence from 1901 to 2014, estimated a modest continent-wide net increase of roughly one additional case per 1,000 children in sub-Saharan Africa.
Odoulami points out that rising temperatures could create a less hospitable environment for disease-spreading mosquitoes in Central and West Africa, contrasted by a more advantageous climate across the southern and eastern parts of the continent.
Regional Contrasts Between West and East Africa
The broad continent-wide average masks sharp regional divergences. Further warming pushed local conditions past the ideal range, reducing transmission as detailed by Our World in Data.
Conversely, cooler areas started well below the optimum temperature. Warming brought these regions closer to ideal transmission conditions according to Our World in Data. High-elevation East Africa experienced an average increase of 0.81 percentage points, equivalent to just over eight additional cases per 1,000 children reported in Nature, with particularly notable resurgences documented in the Ethiopian and Kenyan highlands.
Control Interventions Outweigh Climate Effects
Despite the shifts driven by a warming planet, public health interventions have exerted a vastly greater influence on the disease’s overall trajectory. The continent-wide reduction in malaria prevalence achieved through healthcare investments, mosquito nets, vector-control programs, and economic development has been more than 200 times greater than the minor increase attributed to human-caused climate change noted in Nature.
Cyril Caminade, a climatologist at the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics in Trieste, Italy, emphasizes that malaria transmission remains primarily governed by active control measures.
“The good news is we have the methods to control and prevent the projected increase in malaria from climate change. So yes, if there are increased anti-malaria efforts and the funding to support them that account for climate change shifts in malaria, then elimination is still possible.”
Trisos, author and researcher via Nature
Funding Adaptation and Future Projections
Looking toward the end of the century, projections indicate that intermediate emissions scenarios could lower malaria prevalence further in West and Central Africa while maintaining elevated risks in southern and eastern highlands.
At the same time, researchers warn that extreme weather events and infrastructure vulnerabilities present secondary hazards. Flooding can disrupt clinics and supply chains while creating temporary breeding sites for vectors.
Across the globe, similar vulnerabilities are emerging in regions that have not historically experienced vector-borne diseases. Associate Professor Anders noted in separate reports that places unaccustomed to dengue in southern Europe and the southern United States are increasingly seeing local outbreaks, illustrating a broader global pattern of climate-driven disease expansion.