2024-08-07 04:04:12
Eliminating Airbnbs would have little effect on housing prices. According to a study released by Statistics Canada earlier this week, the figures put forward to pay for this “war” on housing in the short term are largely wrong.
A sofa is not a house
The federal agency conducted a detailed analysis of the short-term housing market in Canada. She concludes that in fact, less than 30% of the accommodations found on Airbnb are “real potential” long-term (LLTP) accommodations.
As a result, Statistics Canada concludes that less than half a percent of all housing is available in the country’s capital cities; as little as 0.26% in the case of Ottawa-Gatineau, up to 0.45% in Vancouver. Of the nearly two million housing units available in the Montreal region, for example, barely 7,000 could be realistic long-term housing units.
The report also concludes that “the level of Airbnb activity had no significant impact on the cost of rent, as the proportion is too small to have a significant impact.”
Does this mean we should do nothing? Maybe not. But our elected officials could take far more important (and far less spectacular) actions.
In real life
This theoretical conclusion can also be seen in reality. In New York, the city government passed Local Law 18 (LL18) in 2022, an almost complete ban on short-term rentals.
Prices did not follow the expected trajectory.
Announcing the settlement, New York City Mayor Eric Adams lamented that “illegal short-term rental operators are hurting our hospitality industry and making it harder for New Yorkers to find affordable housing.”
A political speech that, unfortunately, has not been translated into reality.
If the effect of LL18 on the hotel industry can be measured, the effect on housing is much smaller. Since the law was passed, the number of Airbnbs in New York has decreased by 20,000 units. The price of hotel nights increased by 8.5%. And housing prices have increased… too: more than 4% in 2023 and 9% from the beginning of 2024.
Construction, perhaps?
For years, the Association of Construction and Housing Professionals of Quebec (APCHQ) has been announcing the urgency of greatly increasing the housing supply to get out of the crisis.
According to APCHQ estimates, 1.2 million housing units should be built by 2030. In other words, 200,000 new housing units must be started per year.
So every time an elected official, civil servant or research institute invests time, money and media attention talking about Airbnb, that person is tackling 0.4% of the problem.
Let’s not be surprised if the crisis gets worse. When it comes to housing, it’s time to review our priorities.
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