In Germany, according to a study, nearly 400,000 people are directly threatened by flooding. It is estimated that about 384,000 people are highly likely to be affected by a flooding event in the coming years – with around 190,800 residents living along the Rhine and its tributaries alone.
People living along the Elbe are also significantly affected, as further stated in the study by the Independent Institute for Environmental Issues (Ufu) commissioned by the Green Party’s parliamentary group. In total, about 98,800 residents in this region are particularly at risk. The calculations, which are being published today, are based on the federal states’ plans for flood risk management.
The authors explicitly point out that the data on those affected could change due to future developments. Previous flooding events, such as those along the Oder, also provide indications that the calculated figures may represent a lower estimate.
A study commissioned by the insurance industry (GDV) concluded in February that more than 300,000 buildings in Germany could be threatened by flooding.
Researchers urge preparations against heavy rainfall
Regarding heavy rainfall, the Ufu researchers emphasize the need to expand existing precautions. “Although heavy rainfall events can only be predicted in the short term, building monitoring systems and forecasting models remains important,” they state.
Here, the state of Hesse is setting a good example. User-friendly heavy rainfall hazard maps have been developed there, and there is a municipal monitoring system that experts believe should be expanded nationwide.
Julia Verlinden, the deputy chair of the Green Party faction, referred to the potentially affected by flooding as having “alarming numbers.” Large amounts of precipitation are also expected in parts of Germany this week. It is therefore “high time to adapt flood protection to the demands of the climate crisis” and to provide stronger protection for people.
In addition to better precautions such as stable dikes and large floodplains, legislative measures are necessary: Verlinden stated that the insurance coverage for natural disaster damages caused by flooding should be expanded within this legislative period. “The climate crisis will not be affordable if it continues unabated.”
Decision on mandatory natural disaster insurance still open
So far, the federal government has not been able to agree with the states on the introduction of mandatory insurance against natural disaster damages. While the states insist on implementing a broad mandatory insurance that should not financially overburden renters and homeowners, the Federal Minister of Justice, Marco Buschmann (FDP), has so far opposed it.
Recently, a compromise seemed possible, whereby insurers could be obligated to offer homeowners such a policy. However, there is no current obligation to take out such insurance.
After the floods in the Ahr and Erft regions in 2021, the total damage amounted to more than 40 billion euros. Proponents of mandatory insurance argue that the state can no longer cover such sums alone. The burdens must be distributed differently.