2023-05-12 13:50:00
TRIBUNE/ANALYSIS – In view of the many “simplistic” articles presented in the major Western media, it is necessary to take a step back: it is a question of putting the conflict in Sudan into perspective with the history and current transformations of a world increasingly multipolar.
This conflict resulted in the hundreds of civilians killed during armed clashes between the army and the powerful paramilitary group of the Rapid Support Forces (FSR), which includes more than 100,000 men.
Since April 15, 2023, the leader of the FSR, General Mohamed Hamdan Dagolo, better known as Hemedti, has opposed his former ally General Abdel Fattah Al-Burhane who heads the army. Hemedti hails from the furthest outskirts of Sudan.
Yet all of Sudan’s leaders, with one notable exception, hail from the heart of the capital, Khartoum, and neighboring towns on the Nile. The exception is the Khalifa Abdullahi “al-Ta’aishi” who was from Darfur. His armies had provided the majority of the forces that conquered Khartoum in 1885. Yet the majority of Sudanese still remember the reign of the Khalifa (1885-98) as a tyranny.
It should be recalled that previously, Mohamed Hamdan Dagolo, himself a native of Darfur, ferociously repressed his own ethnic group in order to monopolize, among other things, the gold mines. But beyond the apparent competition between these two generals who clash to lead Sudan hide the Westerners and in particular the Anglo-Saxons in a new hybrid war against the new multipolar world.
Economic and geostrategic interests
The wars, since the independence of Sudan, are mainly based on international geostrategic issues.
Oil
In South Sudan’s US-sponsored war of independence more than a decade ago, oil was at the center of the issue. The resulting split has already enabled Washington to transform the oil-rich South (85% of national production), in fact in protectorate
Sharing the waters of the Nile
The Nile crosses nine countries The sharing of its waters is based on a 1959 treaty which allocates 18 billion m3 to Sudan and 55 billion m3 to Egypt. However, in 2011, Ethiopia, the country where the Nile has its source and which contributes 85% to the flow of the river, announced the construction of the “Renaissance” dam.
This construction reinforces the need for strategy and cooperation of the countries visited in order to secure their water supply, a vital resource. As such, Westerners are trying to position themselves geographically to influence this precious element which could lead to a “water war”.
The geographic location
Sudan has more than 700 km of natural borders with the Red Sea, which makes it a major strategic issue for the control of this sea and the Suez Canal through which passes 10% of world maritime trade. The Red Sea is in this context an important part of the Chinese New Silk Roads project.
The place of the Sudanese people
Beyond the current struggle between the two generals Mohamed Hamdan Dagolo (Hemedti) and Abdel Fattah Al-Burhane, the importance of the Sudanese people should not be overlooked. It was his massive and peaceful mobilization that put an end to the dictatorship of Omar-Al-Bashir in 2019.
The uprising against the high cost of living will last several months and will lead to the overthrow of President Al-Bashir in April 2019 by a military coup. The popular demonstrators were already demanding at the time with slogans: non-violence, freedom, revolution and power for civilians. Following the departure of Omar-Al-Bashir, a transitional government was put in place composed equally of civilians and soldiers for a period of three years.
In October 2021, the military dismisses the civilian ministers in order to preserve the unity of the country. This eviction is led by the two generals who oppose today.
The spokesperson for the Sudanese Communist Party, one of the main forces of the 2018/2019 uprising, recalls that the population remains rebellious and that the civil movement cannot be marginalized. He recommends in particular the dissolution of the militias and their disarmament as well as a united and professional army.
The Russian military base
On February 13, 2023, the Sudanese government comprising the two generals who oppose today reached an agreement with Moscow to build a Russian naval base in Port Sudan on the Red Sea at the southern outlet of the Suez Canal (canal considered by the Anglo-Saxons as their “preserve”).
This agreement for the Russian military base discussed since 2019 was granted for 25 years and renewable in increments of 10 years and for a capacity of 300 Russian soldiers and 4 warships. However, this agreement cannot enter into force immediately because it must be subject to ratification by a civilian government and an elected legislative body, which implies completing the transition of power to civilians.
The reaction of the United States to this agreement is not long in coming. On April 13, 2023, two days before the outbreak of hostilities, the Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, with a British and Norwegian representative spoke by telephone with General Mohamed Hamdan Dagolo. The course of events seems to be an unlikely coincidence.
Westerners: arsonists who shout “fire”
It should be noted that historically never a dominant power (currently the West) renounces its hegemony peacefully. It exploits rivalries and interferes in national conflicts.
The chaos in Sudan allows the United States to present itself as a possible mediating force while it is part of the deterioration of the situation. The US logic in the Sudanese crisis is therefore to encourage chaos in order to offer itself as a mediator with the condition that Sudan distance itself from Moscow.
In conclusion
It remains for the Sudanese to decide if they want to block the Western clan and the old unipolar world with the procession of disorder and misery that accompanies it. This choice will show whether a pan-African and independent path is attractive enough to be worth fighting for. General Abdel Fattah Al Burhane can in this context seek the support of his people who, as in 2018 and 2019, could rally behind the Communist Party in order to block the Western instrumentalization of the conflict which aims to reign through chaos and the division.
(Main references/sources: Saïd Bouamama, Alex De Wall and Djamal Yalaoui)
- Catherine Roman is French and lived for a few years in Russia. She works in the figures sector and is passionate about geopolitics and economic intelligence.
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