Dhe basic idea remains: the Bundestag should become smaller and its size should be fixed from the outset. A basic problem remains the same: whoever wins a constituency directly no longer has a guarantee of moving into the Bundestag. However, the traffic light has made some changes to the draft law, which was debated in the Bundestag in the first reading at the end of January. The amended version is to be decided on Friday in the Bundestag with the votes of the traffic light groups.
Parliament is to have 630 MPs in the future, not 598 as envisaged in the original draft law. The result of the second votes, which will be called the main vote in the future, is still decisive for the distribution among the parties. Constituencies do not have to be redesigned; the number of 299 constituencies should remain.
In contrast to the current law, not every constituency winner is automatically represented in the Bundestag: no more constituency winners may enter the Bundestag than a party is entitled to based on the result of the main votes. If there are more, the constituencies are allocated in the order of the first vote result.
The FDP wanted to come to an agreement with the Union
At this point, the sharpest criticism was kindled. Above all on the part of the CSU, which is currently represented in the Bundestag with eleven constituency winners, more than the party would be entitled to based on the second vote result – these are the overhang mandates that are to be eliminated in the future. But there were also MPs in the traffic light groups who were worried about the new model, for example in the Brandenburg SPD, which was able to win three overhang mandates in 2021.
There were also concerns in the FDP. Not out of personal concern, because the FDP has so far won almost no direct mandates – but because in its ranks there was hope to the last to come to an agreement with the Union. That is why the FDP had reportedly spoken out in favor of a legal size of 660 MPs in the consultations.
That was too much for the Greens and the SPD, and they also considered this number to be chosen arbitrarily. Finally, they agreed on the middle, i.e. 630. According to the calculations of the traffic light, the number of constituencies whose election winners cannot move into the Bundestag should be halved compared to the original model with a total of 598 MPs.
But the Union will still not agree. There is certainly sympathy for the traffic light model in parts of the CDU, for example in the state associations of Hamburg and North Rhine-Westphalia. But the CSU has made it clear that it will not agree if there are any cuts in the direct mandates. The CDU and CSU did not want to be divided at this point.
However, the traffic light has included a proposal from the Union: the basic mandate clause, which previously allowed parties to nominate a parliamentary group based on the result of their second vote, should be abolished if they had won three direct mandates. The left is currently benefiting from this, which sits in the Bundestag with 39 MPs despite a second vote result of 4.9 percent.