[신년 여론조사] next presidential candidate
Lee ranks 1st among all generations excluding those over 70 in the region… “The economy will do well” Lee 37.7% – Wu 9.4%
When the two sides face off, Lee 47.6% – Hong 20.5%… Lee, conservative candidate ahead of both parties
“I’m not sure about either option”: around 30%… Many of the moderates are floating, and volatility is likely to be high.
According to a survey by Dong-A Ilbo on the suitability of candidates for the next presidential election in celebration of the New Year, Lee Jae-myung, leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, ranked first with 39.5%. Representative Lee was ahead of Daegu Mayor Hong Jun-pyo (8.9%), Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon (8.7%), and former Representative Han Dong-hoon (8.0%) of the People Power Party, all within the margin of error. In a one-on-one virtual matchup survey with them, each was ahead with a gap of more than double.
However, Representative Lee fell short of the majority in both the suitability survey and the bilateral competition. In the suitability survey, 11.5% responded ‘none’ or ‘don’t know’, and 3.3% responded ‘another person’, and in the bilateral virtual match, around 30% responded ‘I don’t know’. Considering that many of the moderates have not yet decided on a candidate to support, it is predicted that there will be great volatility in the future presidential election process.
● Lee ranks first in suitability with 39.5% in multi-party competition
On December 28-29 last year, Dong-A Ilbo commissioned research and research, a public opinion polling agency, to ask 1,000 voters nationwide about the person most suitable to be the next president (sampling error is ±3.1 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, Response rate 9.3%) Representative Lee was counted at 39.5%. Mayor Hong, Mayor Oh, and former Representative Han were followed by opposition party Speaker Woo Won-sik (4.8%) and Gyeonggi Province Governor Kim Dong-yeon (4.3%). This was followed by former People Power Party lawmaker Yoo Seung-min (3.7%), People Power Party lawmaker Ahn Cheol-soo (3.0%), and New Reform Party lawmaker Lee Jun-seok (2.3%).
Representative Lee ranked first in all generations, regions, and genders, excluding those over 70 years old. It was highest in those in their 40s (59.1%), followed by those in their 50s (48.7%), 30s (39.4%), 18 to 29 years old (33.7%), and 60s (31.6%). Among those aged 70 or older, it was 19.4%, which was within the margin of error with former CEO Han (22.5%) and Mayor Oh (20.2%). By region, Gwangju/Jeolla (51.9%), Incheon/Gyeonggi (44.0%), and Gangwon/Jeju (42.4%) showed the highest suitability. Seoul recorded 38.8%, and Daejeon, Sejong, and Chungcheong recorded 34.7%, while Daegu and Gyeongbuk (33.3%) and Busan, Ulsan, and Gyeongnam (29.1%), which are strongly conservative, also ranked first in suitability.
Representative Lee (37.7%), Mayor Oh (9.4%), Mayor Hong (7.3%), and Governor Kim (7.1%) were selected as ‘people who will do well in the economic field’. In the ‘diplomacy and security’ field, Representative Lee (35.9%), Mayor Hong (10.4%), Mayor Oh (7.6%), and former Representative Han (6.8%) were in that order. The ‘persons with the best moral character’ were Representative Lee (20.9%), Chairman Woo (10.5%), Mayor Oh (9.2%), and former Representative Han (8.3%).
● Lee dominates the conservative candidate in the two-party match… It falls short of the majority
Representative Lee also took the lead in a virtual bilateral matchup survey with conservative candidates. In the bilateral match with Mayor Hong, he received 47.6%, ahead of Mayor Hong with 20.5% by 27.1 percentage points. 86.5% of Democratic Party supporters supported Representative Lee, and 48.0% of People Power Party supporters supported Mayor Hong. Among the People Power Party supporters, 35.6% responded, ‘There is no one among them (to support).’
Even in a virtual confrontation with Mayor Oh, Representative Lee was ahead of Mayor Oh by 26.8 percentage points, more than twice, with 48.7%, which was 21.9%. 88% of Democratic Party supporters supported Representative Lee, and 60.1% of People Power Party supporters supported Mayor Oh.
In a virtual match between Representative Lee and former Representative Han, Representative Lee was 31.3 percentage points ahead of former Representative Han with 48.0% and 16.7%. 87.7% of Democratic Party supporters supported Representative Lee, and 46.9% of People Power Party supporters supported former Representative Han. 39.8% of People Power Party supporters said ‘there are none of these’. In a virtual match with Rep. Lee Jun-seok, Representative Lee was ahead of Rep. Lee (11.8%) by 35.1 percentage points with 46.9%.