Pollsters and experts expect a clear victory for the FPÖ in the state elections in Styria on 24 November. Otherwise, the picture is a bit unclear: in an APA interview, pollster Peter Hajek referred to the relatively thin data situation with only a few surveys. Opinion researcher Wolfgang Bachmayer expects it to influence the federal coalition negotiations, especially if the ÖVP-SPÖ does not have a majority in the Green Mark.
Experts agree that the FPÖ will be able to continue with the current high level in Styria. The surveys – very few – show the Freedom Party at between 30 (Hajek) and 33 percent (Lazarsfeld). “Given the situation in the federal government and what was shown in the National Council election, it would be surprising if the FPÖ was intercepted” and not Erste, political consultant Thomas Hofer told the APA - referring to the Styria result of the FPÖ in the National Council election on 29 September. At that time, the Freedom Party in the Green Mark achieved a result of 32.19 percent with an increase of 13.73 percentage points.
Pollster Peter Hajek drew attention to the two surveys he conducted (in May and October): in May the FPÖ received 29 percent and in October 30 percent. This means that the Blues were very stable in these two surveys, while “the other parties did a lot”: While the ÖVP was at 22 percent in May, it reached 26 percent in October. The SPÖ was at 21 percent in May and 24 percent in the latest Hajek survey.
Many people are undecided
“We see a lot of movement,” says the demoscope. In addition, according to the data, about 20 percent of voters are undecided in the market. For comparison: In the National Council election this was only ten percent in the Hajek surveys. “We have a very uncertain data situation. The result of this is that there are few measuring points and few surveys that you can use as a guide – both for yourself and your colleagues. “That’s what makes the picture so soft,” said the expert. “We don’t have enough measurement data so you have to be careful,” Hofer said.
What is not certain for the experts is that after the vote next Sunday there will be a majority between black and red. In the case of Hajek, this is “almost certain”, according to Hofer and Bachmayer this is a crucial question. The electoral law in Styria suits the major parties, emphasized Hofer, because basic mandates are “freer” than in the federal government. However, we have to wait and see.
No controller bonus
If a situation arises where ÖVP and SPÖ also want a third party in Styria (as in the federal government), “that would be even better,” Hofer said. What will also be crucial is how far the FPÖ is ahead of the others in the first place.
The experts do not see a state governor bonus for ÖVP Boss Christopher Drexler - unlike what was the case with Vorarlberg state governor Markus Wallner (ÖVP) in the Vorarlberg election on October 13. In addition, the rate of fall of the ÖVP is quite high: in 2019 it came to 36.05 percent. Therefore, a relatively large loss can be expected for the ÖVP, Hofer said. Surveys see the ÖVP at between 26 and 27 percent in the latest surveys.
The influence of federal politics
The current situation in the federal government and the FPÖ not being responsible for forming a government would also benefit the Freedom Party in Styria, Hofer said. Drexler had already “sensibly” asked that the FPÖ be tasked with forming a government, as the latter knew that the current situation “is still grist to the FPÖ’s mill.”
Prominent SPÖ candidate Anton Lang tried to separate himself from the federal SPÖ, but that was “difficult,” Hofer said. The crucial question for the Social Democrats is how they will fare in relation to the ÖVP after the election. According to surveys, the Reds were between 22 and 24 percent, which would be about the result from 2019 (23.02). The “monkey on the wall” is the results of the National Council elections in the country (18.59 percent). ”But we assume the outcome will not be that bad,” Hajek said.
likely entry of KPÖ
The pollster said that the KPÖ, which is traditionally strong in Styria, especially in Graz, will play a role in the performance of the SPÖ. The result of the KPÖ and NEOS, each with six percent in the polls, seems quite certain: “In the constituency of Graz and the surrounding area they have to make a basic mandate, but it can be accepted between five and six percent first,” said Hajek. The polls are predicting significant losses for the Greens compared to their biggest result since 2019 (12.08).
In any case, the potential victory of the FPÖ will have ”consequences for the federal government”, Hofer said, “the nerves are growing,” and the uncertainty among the SPÖ and ÖVP will increase again. But he does not think that anything will change in relation to the coalition negotiations.
A “head roll” of your choice
Boss OGM Bachmayer sees it a little differently: If the coalition negotiators in the federal government do not announce at least basic progress before the election in Styria, the expected victory of the FPÖ will become increasingly difficult and the poor performance of the ÖVP is likely there. and SPÖ.
“The message should be: Basically we’ve done it, but by Christmas or just after Christmas we’ll have a new government. “That may have stopped the breakthrough process that I am predicting based on the results of the Styrian elections,” Bachmayer also believes that the leaders of the federal party in the ÖVP and the SPÖ could be disturbed if the negotiations continue and results state elections underway. out as expected. This applies even more if, after the election in Styria – as in the federal government – there can only be a two-party coalition with the FPÖ and the ÖVP and the SPÖ together need a third partner. (APA)
How might the current political landscape impact coalition negotiations after the Styria elections?
Interview between Time.news Editor and Political Expert
Time.news Editor: Welcome, and thank you for joining us today! We’re looking at the upcoming state elections in Styria on November 24. Polls suggest a clear advantage for the Freedom Party (FPÖ). What are the key indicators supporting this prediction?
Political Expert: Thank you for having me! The expectation of a significant victory for the FPÖ is largely attributed to their stability in recent surveys. Peter Hajek’s polls indicate they’ve consistently hovered around 30 to 33 percent. This consistency reflects underlying voter support amidst a relatively fluid political environment.
Time.news Editor: It seems the FPÖ is capitalizing on a moment of uncertainty for the other parties. Can you elaborate on the undecided voters?
Political Expert: Absolutely. Nearly 20 percent of voters remain undecided, which is notably higher than the 10 percent we saw during the National Council elections. This uncertainty creates a more dynamic atmosphere leading up to the election but also complicates predictions. It’s a classic case of voters waiting to see how the parties position themselves just before the vote.
Time.news Editor: With such a significant portion of undecided voters, what role do you anticipate federal politics playing in the state elections?
Political Expert: Federal dynamics have a significant influence, particularly since the FPÖ is not currently part of the federal governing coalition. They’ve been able to critique the current administration without bearing the brunt of any unpopularity. Political consultant Thomas Hofer noted that this helps the FPÖ resonate with local voters, as they can position themselves as a viable alternative.
Time.news Editor: Now, speaking of the ÖVP and SPÖ—what’s their stance considering the current political landscape?
Political Expert: The ÖVP is facing a challenging situation. Their support has reportedly dropped in the latest surveys, sitting around 26 to 27 percent compared to 2019’s 36.05 percent. Without the “governor bonus” seen in places like Vorarlberg, they may struggle. Meanwhile, the SPÖ is hoping to maintain a steady voter base of about 22 to 24 percent, a crucial factor given their historic performance.
Time.news Editor: And what about the KPÖ? They’ve been traditionally strong in Styria, particularly in Graz. What impact might they have?
Political Expert: KPÖ’s presence cannot be overlooked. Polls suggest they will likely secure around 6 percent, which can siphon votes away from the SPÖ, especially among left-leaning constituents. This shift could be critical, as the SPÖ tries to distance itself from the federal party image while appealing to local voters.
Time.news Editor: So, looking ahead to coalition negotiations, what scenarios do you think will unfold post-election?
Political Expert: That’s an excellent question! If the FPÖ performs as expected, they may emerge as the dominant force in negotiations. There’s considerable speculation about whether the ÖVP and SPÖ will be able to reach a majority, especially if they can’t afford to form a stable coalition with the existing political landscape in Styria.
Time.news Editor: Thank you, this has been an enlightening discussion. As we draw closer to the elections, it will be fascinating to see how these dynamics play out on the ground!
Political Expert: Thank you for having me! It’s certainly an exciting time in Styrian politics, and I look forward to seeing how it unfolds.