“Surprise if FPÖ doesn’t come first” – DiePresse.com

by time news

Pollsters and experts expect a‍ clear victory for the FPÖ in the state elections in Styria on 24 November. Otherwise, the picture is a bit unclear:​ in an APA interview, pollster Peter Hajek referred to the ⁣relatively​ thin data situation with only a few surveys. Opinion researcher Wolfgang Bachmayer expects it to influence the federal coalition negotiations, especially⁣ if the ÖVP-SPÖ does⁢ not have a majority in the⁣ Green Mark.

Experts agree that the FPÖ will ​be able⁣ to continue with⁣ the current⁤ high level in Styria. The ⁣surveys – very few – ⁣show the ‌Freedom ​Party at between 30 (Hajek) and ‌33 percent (Lazarsfeld). “Given the situation in ⁣the federal government and ⁢what⁣ was shown in the⁢ National Council election, it would be surprising if the FPÖ‌ was intercepted” and not Erste, political consultant Thomas Hofer told the APA -⁣ referring⁤ to the Styria result ⁤of the FPÖ in⁣ the National⁤ Council election on 29 September. At⁣ that time, the Freedom‌ Party in the Green ⁣Mark‌ achieved a⁢ result of 32.19 ⁣percent with an increase of 13.73 percentage points.

Pollster Peter Hajek drew attention ​to the two surveys he conducted (in May and October): in May⁣ the FPÖ received 29 percent ‌and in October 30 ‌percent. ​This means that the Blues were very ⁤stable in these two surveys, while “the⁤ other parties did a lot”: While the ⁣ÖVP was at 22 ​percent in May, it reached ⁤26 percent‍ in October. The⁢ SPÖ was ‌at ⁤21 percent in May and 24 percent in the latest Hajek‌ survey.

Many people are undecided

“We see a lot of movement,” says the ⁣demoscope. In addition, according to the data, about⁤ 20 percent of voters​ are undecided in the market. For‌ comparison: ​In‍ the National Council election this was ‌only ten percent ‍in ⁣the Hajek​ surveys. “We have a very uncertain ⁢data situation. ​The result of ‌this is that ‌there⁣ are few‌ measuring ‌points and⁢ few surveys that you‌ can‌ use as ‍a guide⁣ – both for yourself and your‌ colleagues. “That’s​ what makes the picture‌ so soft,” said⁤ the expert. “We don’t ⁣have enough measurement data‍ so you have to be careful,” Hofer said.

What ‌is not ⁤certain for the experts is ‍that after the vote next Sunday there will be a majority ⁣between black and red. In the case of Hajek, this is “almost certain”, ⁣according to‌ Hofer and Bachmayer ⁢this is ‍a crucial ⁢question. The electoral law in Styria suits the major parties, emphasized Hofer, because basic mandates are “freer” than⁤ in the federal government. However, we have‍ to wait and see.

No controller bonus

If a⁣ situation arises where ÖVP ⁤and ‌SPÖ also want a ⁤third party in Styria⁢ (as in the federal⁤ government), “that would be ​even ⁤better,” Hofer said. What will also be crucial is how far the FPÖ is ahead of the others in the first place.

The experts ⁤do not see ⁤a state⁢ governor bonus for ÖVP Boss Christopher Drexler ⁣- unlike what was the case with Vorarlberg state governor ⁣Markus Wallner (ÖVP)‌ in the Vorarlberg election on October 13. In addition, ​the rate of fall of the ÖVP is quite high: in 2019 it came to 36.05 percent. ‍Therefore, a relatively ⁣large ‌loss can be ⁣expected for the ÖVP, Hofer ​said. Surveys see ⁣the ÖVP at between 26 and 27⁤ percent in the ⁢latest surveys.

The influence of federal politics

​​​​The current situation in the federal government and ⁤the FPÖ not being responsible for forming a government would also benefit the Freedom Party in⁤ Styria, Hofer ⁤said. ​Drexler had already “sensibly” asked‌ that the FPÖ ⁢be tasked⁢ with⁣ forming ‍a government, ‍as the latter ​knew that the⁢ current situation “is​ still grist to the FPÖ’s mill.”

Prominent SPÖ candidate Anton Lang⁤ tried to separate himself from the​ federal SPÖ, but that was “difficult,” Hofer said. The crucial question for the Social ⁣Democrats is ‍how they will fare in⁣ relation to the ‌ÖVP after the election. According to‌ surveys, the Reds were between ⁢22 and‌ 24 percent, which would be about the ​result ⁢from 2019 (23.02). The “monkey ​on the wall” is the results of the National Council elections in the country (18.59 percent). ‍”But we assume the outcome will not be that bad,” Hajek said.

likely entry of KPÖ

The pollster said that the KPÖ, which ⁢is traditionally strong in Styria, especially in Graz, will⁤ play a​ role in ‍the⁢ performance of the SPÖ. The result of the KPÖ and NEOS, each with six percent in the​ polls, seems quite certain: “In the constituency of Graz and the surrounding area they have to make a basic mandate, but it can be accepted between ⁢five and six percent first,” said Hajek. The polls are predicting ⁣significant ​losses for the Greens ⁤compared to their ‍biggest result ⁢since 2019 (12.08).

In any case, the potential victory of the FPÖ will have ⁢”consequences for the federal government”,‍ Hofer​ said,​ “the⁤ nerves are growing,” and the‍ uncertainty among the SPÖ and ÖVP will increase again. But he does not think that anything will ⁢change in‍ relation to the coalition negotiations.

A “head roll” of your choice

Boss OGM Bachmayer‌ sees it a ​little ⁢differently: If the coalition⁤ negotiators in the federal government do not announce​ at least basic progress before the election in Styria, the expected ‌victory of ⁢the FPÖ will become increasingly ⁣difficult and the poor​ performance of the ÖVP is likely there. ⁣and ⁢SPÖ.

“The message should ‍be: Basically we’ve done it, but by Christmas or just​ after Christmas we’ll have ‍a new government. “That may have stopped the breakthrough process that⁣ I am predicting based on the results of ‍the ⁢Styrian elections,” Bachmayer also believes that the leaders of the ⁣federal party in the ÖVP and⁣ the SPÖ could be disturbed if ‍the negotiations continue and results state⁤ elections underway. out‌ as expected. This applies even more‍ if, after the election in Styria – as in the federal government – there can only be ‌a two-party​ coalition with the ⁢FPÖ ⁢and⁤ the ÖVP and the SPÖ ‌together need a third partner. (APA)

How might the current political landscape‍ impact coalition negotiations after the Styria elections?

Interview between Time.news Editor and Political Expert

Time.news Editor: Welcome, and thank you for joining us today! We’re looking at the upcoming state elections in Styria on November 24. Polls suggest a clear advantage ‍for the​ Freedom ⁣Party (FPÖ). What‍ are the key indicators ⁢supporting this ‌prediction?

Political⁣ Expert: Thank you⁤ for having me! The expectation⁣ of ⁣a significant victory for the FPÖ is largely attributed to their stability in recent surveys. Peter Hajek’s polls indicate they’ve consistently hovered around 30 to 33 percent. This consistency reflects underlying voter support amidst a relatively fluid political environment.

Time.news Editor: It seems the FPÖ ⁢is capitalizing on a moment of uncertainty for⁣ the other parties. Can you elaborate ⁢on the undecided voters?

Political Expert: Absolutely. Nearly 20 percent of voters remain undecided, which is notably higher than the 10 percent ⁢we saw​ during the National Council elections. This uncertainty creates a more dynamic atmosphere leading up to the election but also complicates predictions. It’s ⁤a classic case of voters waiting ⁤to see how the parties position themselves ⁤just before the vote.

Time.news Editor: With such ​a significant portion of undecided voters, what role do you anticipate federal politics playing ⁣in the state elections?

Political Expert: ​Federal⁢ dynamics have a significant influence, ‍particularly since the FPÖ is not ⁤currently part of the federal governing coalition. They’ve been able to critique⁤ the current ‌administration without⁢ bearing⁣ the brunt ‌of any unpopularity. Political consultant Thomas Hofer noted that this helps the FPÖ resonate with local voters, as they can position themselves as a viable ​alternative.

Time.news Editor: Now,‌ speaking of the ÖVP and SPÖ—what’s their stance considering the current political landscape?

Political Expert: The ÖVP is facing a challenging situation. ‌Their ‌support has reportedly dropped⁢ in the latest surveys, ​sitting around 26‌ to 27 percent compared to ​2019’s 36.05 percent. Without the “governor bonus” seen in⁣ places ⁢like Vorarlberg, they may struggle. Meanwhile, the SPÖ is hoping to maintain a steady voter base‌ of ⁤about 22 to 24 percent, a crucial factor given their⁤ historic performance.

Time.news‌ Editor: And what about ‍the KPÖ? They’ve ⁣been traditionally⁢ strong in Styria, particularly in Graz. What impact might they ​have?

Political Expert: KPÖ’s presence cannot be overlooked. Polls suggest they will likely secure around 6 percent, which ‌can siphon votes⁣ away from the SPÖ, especially ​among‍ left-leaning constituents. This shift could⁤ be critical, as the ⁤SPÖ ​tries to distance itself from the federal party image while appealing to local ‌voters.

Time.news Editor: So, looking⁤ ahead to coalition negotiations, what scenarios do you think ‍will unfold post-election?

Political Expert: ‍ That’s an ‍excellent question! If the FPÖ performs as expected, they may​ emerge as ​the dominant force in negotiations. There’s⁢ considerable speculation about whether the ÖVP and SPÖ‍ will be able to reach a majority, especially if they⁤ can’t afford to form a stable coalition with the existing political landscape in Styria.

Time.news⁣ Editor: Thank⁤ you, this‌ has been an⁣ enlightening discussion. As we​ draw closer to the elections, it will be fascinating​ to ‌see how ​these dynamics play⁣ out on ‍the ground!

Political Expert: Thank⁤ you for having me! It’s ⁢certainly an ​exciting time in Styrian politics, and I look forward to⁤ seeing how it unfolds.

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