Survey quake for the Union: Voter support crash in three federal states – domestic politics

Triple poll swatter for the Union!

The Union continues to fall in favor of the electorate – now also at the state level. In three federal states (North Rhine-Westphalia, BaWü and Bavaria) there is a slap for the CDU / CSU two weeks after the federal election.

SPD far ahead in NRW

► In the INSA state election poll for BILD, the SPD becomes the strongest political force in NRW with 33 percent and has gained 12 points (!) Since the last poll in May.

► The approval ratings for the CDU in North Rhine-Westphalia, the home of Union Chancellor candidate Armin Laschet (60), are, however, miserable. At 20 percent (minus five points) it is far behind the SPD.

The green (13 percent) lose even more, halving their result (minus 13).

► For this lays the FDP considerably (plus 4), now comes to 15 percent.

► Slap on the other hand for the left: You would fail with 4 percent (minus 0.5) at the five percent hurdle while the AfD with 8 percent (minus 1) would certainly move back into the state parliament. Other parties come together to 7 percent.

Explosive: The current black and yellow state government would lose its parliamentary majority with 35 percent. Instead, both a red-green coalition (46 percent) and a red-yellow coalition (48 percent) would have parliamentary majorities in NRW!

Mathematically, a CDU-led Jamaica coalition of CDU, FDP and Greens would also be possible, which would also come to 48 percent. And: A red-black GroKo would even get a clear majority of votes with a total of 53 percent.

In plain language: The positive federal trend is also helping the SPD in NRW. It is by far the strongest force in North Rhine-Westphalia and the only party that can lead two-party alliances.

CDU survey clap also in Baden-Wuerttemberg

Even in a state election in Baden-Württemberg, the CDU would continue to decline, while the SPD continues to win. The CDU has therefore fallen by 4.1 points to 20 percent since the state election (March 2021). The SPD would almost double its election result with almost 21 percent and would move past the CDU to second place.

► Remain despite major losses (minus 8.6) the green Prime Minister Winfried Kretschmann (73) continues to be the strongest force with 24 percent.

► The FDP improves significantly to 16 percent.

► The AfD stagnates at 9 percent, the left at 3 percent.

Poll swatter for the CDU! Because: Green-Black would lose the parliamentary majority in BaWü (44 percent). But green-red would also be scarce (45 percent).

On the other hand, it would certainly be enough for a traffic light coalition led by the Greens, which together would come to 61 percent. Likewise for a green-led Jamaica alliance (60 percent) or a German coalition made up of the SPD, CDU and FDP (57 percent). In this case, the SPD would provide the prime minister.

INSA opinion trend in BaWü: CDU only third place

CSU loses in Bavaria

The next Union hammer comes from Bavaria! The CSU (32 percent) around country father and party leader Markus Söder (54) has lost five points in southern Germany compared to the July survey. The Greens (15 percent) even lose six. The free voters lose two points, now land on 8 percent. The left comes to 2 percent (minus one point).

The biggest winner, on the other hand, was the Social Democrats. The SPD (20 percent) doubled its result. The FDP (11 percent) also added three points. The AfD (8 percent) holds its value.

INSA opinion trend in Bavaria: CSU loses dramatically

Explosive: The current coalition of the CSU and Free Voters only comes together to 40 percent and thus loses its parliamentary majority. The CSU and the Greens also just missed a parliamentary majority with 47 percent. A traffic light coalition with a total of 46 percent would also not achieve a parliamentary majority.

BUT: The CSU could lead the government in a Jamaica coalition with the Greens and FDP, which together would have 58 percent. A coalition of CSU, Greens and Free Voters (55 percent) or a “CSU, FDP and Free Voters” alliance (51 percent) would also be possible.

The only definitely possible two-person constellation: Together with the SPD, the CSU could form a black-red GroKo in Bavaria, which would come to 52 percent. Otherwise the CSU would also need a three-party alliance to govern. A majority against the CSU would only be possible in an alliance of four.



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