2023-06-23 11:03:57
10 days before the provincial election, a survey yesterday revealed that the official San Juan por Todos (SJxT) front, led by Sergio Uñac, is close to 48 percent of the votes and is almost 6 points ahead of Unidos por San Juan (UxSJ), the main opposition alliance led by Marcelo Orrego. According to this survey and if those numbers are confirmed, Senator Rubén Uñac would become the next governor and the mayor of San Martín, Cristian Andino, his vice, since both would even prevail in the “internal” against the duo José Luis Gioja – Fabián Gramajo, so they would keep their votes according to what is established by the new electoral mechanism, which is equal to Lemas.
The survey is from the national consultant Julio Aurelio – Aresco, which has been intervening in electoral processes since 1983 and which is a source of consultation for different national media on both sides of the ideological spectrum. This is a survey handled by the ruling party and accessed by this medium, which took into account a sample of 2,000 cases (through a questionnaire conducted by fixed and mobile telephony), with a margin of error of +/- 2. .4 percent and that reflects its evolution on two dates in May and a sampling carried out yesterday.
The poll indicates that the Vamos San Juan sub-group, with Sergio Uñac as a candidate for Governor, reached 24 percent on May 5, nine days before the local elections, while the internal line San Juan Vuelve, led by José Luis Gioja , was almost in a technical tie with 23.4. Thus, the SJxT front achieved 47.4 percent in total. For its part, Orrego’s Cambia San Juan list had 38.4 percent, while the remaining subgroups of the same coalition (headed by Marcelo Arancibia, Sergio Vallejos, and Eduardo Cáceres) reached 3.1. In this way, the UxSJ alliance reached 41.5 percent.
On May 9, the Supreme Court of Justice of the Nation suspended the election of the category of governor and vice president and on the 14th of that month the positions of deputies, mayors and councilors were defined, which left a strong supremacy of the Uñaquista candidates. . The consultant carried out another survey five days later and the list of Sergio Uñac, who was still continuing as a candidate for the highest provincial position, had climbed to 28.9 percent, while Gioja’s had fallen to 19.9. On Orrego’s side, his subgroup had grown little (to 39.3 percent), while those of his internal rivals had remained at 3.1. The sum on each of the fronts also reflected a victory for the pro-government alliance over the opposition.
On June 1, the highest judicial court disqualified the candidacy of Sergio Uñac, who four days later decided that his brother Rubén should replace him. With the senator as a candidate for the governorship of Vamos San Juan, the pollster carried out its last poll yesterday, which indicated only a decline of 1.6 points with respect to the last measurement, which reflects that the change did not make a dent in the sector led by the PJ and the pro-government front. In addition to the fact that a Uñac continues to top the list, the Governor is still strong in the campaign, in management and even in the vote. In turn, Gioja continues with similar numbers, not so far from its internal rival and with a significant flow, to the point that both lines would lead the SJxT coalition to victory by about six points (see infographic).
As for UxSJ, the last and previous surveys show the strong presence of the Orrego – Fabián Martín duo, but that is not enough since their partners would not accumulate enough to match the ruling party, according to the pollster’s photo.
The numbers are similar to the parameters left by the fractional election on May 14. If the category of proportional deputies is taken into account, which is the one that is attached to that of the governor and vice, which was suspended, the pro-government alliance would have obtained 49 percent, while the main opposition front would have garnered 35, 4 percent. In fact, Andino, candidate for lieutenant governor of Vamos San Juan, had indicated that the Orrego and Martín duo “is not that they are so competitive, it is not that they have improved much compared to 2019.”
third force
6.73 This is what the Development and Freedom Front would have obtained on May 14, based on the category of proportional deputies. The poll gave it 4.1 on May 19.
Datasheet
The Julio Aurelio – Aresco survey carried out a sample with 2,000 cases, in a population
older than 16 years. The data collection instrument was a structured questionnaire
phone application. The last one (see infographic) was made on June 22.
#Survey #revealed #progovernment #front #points #Orregos #Cuyos #diary