2023-08-21 17:59:33
Tânia Rêgo/Agência Brasil
Bolsonaro said that Lula “will never know what democracy is”
A survey by Genial/Quaest released this Monday (21) reveals that Brazilians’ confidence in the Armed Forces is falling. Data show that from December 2022 to August 2023 the percentage of people who say they “trust a lot” in the military dropped 10 percentage points, from 43% to 33%.
Adding up the results of those who say they “do not trust” or “do not trust” the Armed Forces, the index went from 54% to 64% in the same period. The survey was carried out from August 10th to 14th, listening to 2,029 people aged 16 or over in 120 municipalities. The confidence level is 95%.
Brazilians’ levels of trust in other institutions were also evaluated, such as the Military Police, evangelical and Catholic churches, the Federal Supreme Court (STF), the National Congress and political parties.
Among them, only the Armed Forces had a significant reduction in confidence, beyond the 2.2% margin of error, in comparison with the previous survey. However, institutions such as political parties, the Federal Supreme Court and the National Congress already had a higher degree of distrust than the Armed Forces.
This drop in trust in the military occurred in almost all segments of the population, but it was more explicit and intense among the portion of the population that declared they had voted for former president Jair Bolsonaro (PL) in the second round of the 2022 presidential elections.
Among Bolsonaristas, the rate of people who claim to “trust a lot” in the military fell from 61% to 40%, that is, there was a reduction of 21%. At the same time, the percentage of those who claim to “do not trust” the Armed Forces increased from 7% to 20% (13% more), and those who declared that they “trust little” increased from 31% to 38%.
“It does not seem to be a mere coincidence that one of the most solid and respected institutions in the country has been suffering from this deterioration of its image. There were many scandals involving people of the highest rank in the corporation. It is as if the Bolsonaro post-government had dragged the Army into an unprecedented crisis,” said Felipe Nunes, director of Quaest.
Among the voters of the current president, Luís Inácio Lula da Silva (PT), there was little variation. Those who claimed to “trust a lot” were 27% and increased to 29%; the “little trust” index went from 45% to 43%; and those who said they did not trust the military were 25% in December, rising to 26% in August.
In the evangelical electorate – which has a great intersection with Bolsonarism – the military also lost prestige. In this segment, the number of people who trust the Armed Forces a lot fell from 53% to 37%.
The rhetorical and political connection between Bolsonarism and the military class is not new, since the former president’s government had more military personnel participating in the first echelon than in the period when Brazil experienced a dictatorship orchestrated and led by the armed forces.
However, scandals involving the military and the Bolsonaro government throughout his term – and even after he left power – in several areas, such as education and health (conducting the fight against the pandemic), are in the memory of Brazilians.
The most recent scandal involving members of the Armed Forces in alleged crimes was known as the “jewelry case” and investigates whether high-ranking military personnel who are part of the former president’s closest circle acted on his orders to illegally sell luxurious gifts that Bolsonaro received during official trips.
Given this scenario, it is easy to imagine that this is the reason for the loss of prestige, reliability and credibility of the Armed Forces in the eyes of public opinion. For Piero Leirner, PhD in Social Anthropology from the University of São Paulo with experience in the anthropology of war and in hierarchical systems, commented on the research through his social networks.
In his view, the sectoralization of the fall in the population’s trust in the military – greater among Bolsonarists, evangelicals, people with less schooling and residents of the North and Midwest regions – points to the success of a strategy by the Armed Forces to undo the association of their image with Bolsonarism.
In the researcher’s view, the Bolsonarist electorate, which is disillusioned, feels that the Armed Forces “abandoned the cause” of the military coup that this group defends, no longer deserving their trust. Among the rest of the population, Piero assesses that the military will regain credibility “among this troupe of voters when Bolsonaro evaporates for good”.
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