2023-07-11 16:16:42
Putin confirms the opposite of what his many admirers have always said: he is not a genius of geopolitics, but a statesman devoid of lucidity, who in the name of a pathological nationalism-imperialism is causing enormous damage to his own country
With Sweden’s entry into NATO, Vladimir Putin will finally be able to say: here is the proof that NATO is encircling Russia. His Italian sympathizers will echo the propaganda: the guilty West is feeding the siege syndrome in Moscow. This is a classic example of a self-fulfilling prophecy: Putin did so much that he actually managed to get surrounded.
Up until 500 days ago, up until the eve of its invasion of Ukraine, NATO enlargement to include Finland and Sweden was not on the agenda. It was precisely that aggression that unleashed so many fears in the countries bordering Russia – by land or by sea – that it pushed two nations with ancient pacifist and neutralist traditions to seek protection within the Atlantic Alliance.
Putin confirms the opposite of what his many admirers have always said: he is not a geopolitical genius, but a statesman devoid of lucidity, who in the name of a pathological nationalism-imperialism is causing enormous damage to his own country. Before him he severed economic ties with the West and destroyed a legacy of relations with Europe, squandering the energy link that had been patiently built by his Soviet predecessors. So he has pushed his fragile economy into a dependence on China that will increasingly resemble colonization. To China’s advantage, he is also losing a part of his influence in Central Asia, the Middle East, Africa. Finally, he gave NATO a very long land and sea border manned by two first-rate armies: even when they were neutral, the Swedes and the Finns had never made the mistake of other Europeans, that is, they had never completely let their guard down to the Russian threat. It is understood that Putin must find a compromise with Prigozhin. This is not the time to lose Wagner too.
On the question of Ukraine’s entry into NATO, Joe Biden’s half step back has various explanations. Only one would be enough: when we say NATO, let us always remember that it is a preponderant part of America’s combat capability. It’s always been like this. Even more so after the Europeans had sunk into a geopolitical lethargy, deluded after the fall of the Berlin Wall that they could be the first herbivorous superpower in the history of humanity. If one day NATO were forced to fight to defend Ukraine on the basis of Article 5 of the statute, America would first have to send its soldiers. Biden from the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, while condemning it, set these stakes: America will not send boots on the ground and America will not enter into a direct conflict against Russia. A year and a half away from the US presidential election and with an isolationist current well represented in the Republican party, this is not the time to betray those promises.
There remains a dilemma very well summarized in this sentence from The Economist: How to refuse Ukraine entry into NATO while it is at war, without thereby giving Putin a reason to prolong the war. Vladimir Zelensky has perfectly grasped this dilemma and his legitimate exasperation: if entry into NATO is conditional on the end of the fighting, the best way for Putin to keep Ukraine out of NATO is to continue bombing it and massacring its civilians.
Yesterday I recalled the precedent of Bucharest 2008: even then a NATO summit gave Putin a dangerously ambiguous signal. On the one hand he made vague hints at the possibility of a future entry of Ukraine into NATO; on the other hand he refused to specify times and methods. That ambiguity accelerated Putin’s rush to his own wars, from Georgia to Crimea to Ukraine, because NATO hadn’t put an adequate deterrent in front of him. N had completely assuaged his paranoia of encirclement. Paranoia, for some of you this may sound like an overstatement. It should be remembered that he took part in the NATO summit in Bucharest in 2008. Yes, NATO was so aggressive that the Russian president was a guest of honor with him.
July 11, 2023 (change July 11, 2023 | 4:16 pm)
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