The maneuvers that the Chinese army has just carried out, from April 8 to 10, around Taiwan to protest against the meeting, in California, of the President of Taiwan, Tsai Ing-wen, with Kevin McCarthy, the President of the House of representatives, testify more to China’s desire to test the “red lines” of Taiwan and the United States than to cross them. Certainly, according to the Taiwanese Ministry of Defense, China has committed twelve military buildings – including the aircraft carrier Shandong – as well as 91 aircraft. And 54 planes crossed the center line of the strait, considered the border between the island and the mainland, or flew over the southwest of Taiwan’s air defense identification zone. But it appears that the ships remained in international waters or China’s territorial waters. By contrast, in the summer of 2022, after McCarthy’s predecessor Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan, China sent 11 missiles over Taiwan, some landing in Japan’s exclusive economic zone. Nothing happened this time. Despite the end of the maneuvers, announced Monday, April 10, Taiwan says that 9 ships and 26 Chinese planes were still present Tuesday around the island.
Several reasons may explain Beijing’s relative restraint. The meeting between President Tsai and the Speaker of the House of Representatives took place, at the request of Tsai Ing-wen, in California and not in Taiwan. In addition, Taiwan is entering an electoral campaign, with a view to the presidential election of January 2024. Mme Tsai owes his re-election in January 2020 in part to the comparison Xi Jinping made a year earlier between the situation on the island and Hong Kong. This comparison was counterproductive, prompting many Taiwanese to vote for President Tsai’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP).
Communist leaders know that the more aggressive they are, the more likely they are to favor the DPP candidate again. Moreover, China is trying to seduce the KMT, the Kuomintang, a former nationalist party, which is more conciliatory towards Beijing. While the KMT has not yet nominated its candidate for the next election, one of its prominent members, former President of the Republic Ma Ying-Jeou (2008-2016), performed from March 27 to April 7 a visit to mainland China. For this first, this supporter of good relations with Beijing was received by several Chinese officials, who have every interest in the KMT nominating a candidate who is not hostile to him.
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