2024-01-14 13:09:55
For eight years, China has raged at Taiwan’s ruling party, accusing it of promoting a separatist agenda that Beijing must counter with economic leverage and demonstrations of military force.
On Saturday, voters in Taiwan gave another resounding victory to the Democratic Progressive Party, ensuring that those tensions will continue, or increase, in the next four years, and cementing the island’s status as a hotbed of conflict between Washington and Beijing.
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Lai Ching-te’s victory is expected to cause unease in China, but also raise concerns in Washington that Beijing may resort to the use of force to force the democratic government in Taiwan to fold.
Lai, now the vice president, won 40% of the vote and defeated two opponents, thus becoming the successor of his retiring boss, President Tsai Ing-wen. In doing so, the incoming president helped the Democratic Progressive Party secure a third consecutive term in power, an unprecedented feat since Taiwan began electing leaders in general elections nearly 30 years ago.
The incoming President of the Democratic Progressive Party in Taiwan, Lai Ching-te / Photo: Reuters, Jimmy Beunardeau
The world is wondering: is the incoming president interested in independence for Taiwan?
In the capitals of the countries of the region and other countries in the world, a central question arises: will Lai, who in the past openly spoke of his desire for Taiwanese independence, before giving his formulations in recent years, choose a stable relationship with China – or does his choice mark the beginning of a turbulent phase in relations with The powerhouse across the Taiwan Straits, a 160 km wide sea passage that separates Taiwan from mainland China.
Although Beijing’s preferred partner in Taipei, the main opposition Kuomintang, or Nationalist Party, lost by a narrow margin compared to last time, the result makes it clear that closer ties, or even political union, with China remain undesirable in the eyes of the majority of the people in Taiwan.
The result is a problem for Chinese President Xi Jinping, who has stepped up efforts to bring Taiwan closer to China’s circle of influence. Having tried everything from economic incentives to diplomatic encirclement and military threats, Beijing must now accept the possibility that it may never be able to convince the Taiwanese to surrender to the Communist Party.
More rhetorical attacks and shows of force against Taiwan will heighten regional tensions and jeopardize a hard-earned relaxation in US-China relations – without necessarily advancing Beijing’s goals. Temptations such as increased bilateral trade and cultural exchanges seem pointless, having failed in the past do much to stem the rise of a Taiwanese identity distinct from that of mainland Chinese citizens.
For Beijing, one realistic goal is to prevent Taiwan from formally declaring independence and thus further distancing itself from its status as an extension of mainland China, said Dominic Yang, a historian at the University of Missouri-Columbia who studies identity issues in Taiwan.
The Communist Party has long tried to use economic integration to entice the Taiwanese to accept unification with the mainland, “but it has failed spectacularly,” Yang said. “Beijing must understand that they have done a lot to alienate an entire generation of Taiwanese people.”
In China they are preparing for an extreme scenario in which Taiwan will want official independence
China’s initial reaction to the election results showed no willingness to rethink Beijing’s Taiwan policy. The election results “show that the Democratic Progressive Party cannot represent mainstream public opinion on the island,” said a spokesman for the Chinese government’s Taiwan Affairs Office. The elections “do not change the general trend, that the homeland will finally unite.”
A strong Chinese response to Lai’s victory could prompt the United States, Beijing’s main defense partner, to push back on China — and perhaps drag U.S.-China relations back into the doldrums just months after U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping Jingping agreed last November in California to better manage the differences between the two superpowers.
Joe Biden in his meeting with Xi Jinping, President of China last November / Photo: Reuters, KEVIN LAMARQUE
Xi has shown greater assertiveness in Beijing’s desire to control Taiwan, an effort not seen since Mao Zedong’s Communist Party took control of mainland China in 1949 and forced Chiang Kai-shek’s Kuomintang government to retreat to Taipei. While Xi has insisted that he prefers a peaceful unification, he has also refused to take the possibility of using military force off the table.
Given Xi’s forceful approach to enforcing national unity, “Beijing’s narrative on Taiwan can only get tougher — it’s impossible for them to ease up,” said Wu Jimin, a researcher at Academia Sinica, a government-funded think tank in Taipei.
After the Democratic Progressive Party won the presidency in 2016, Beijing suspended official ties with Taipei and launched a pressure campaign against Taiwan on economic, diplomatic and military fronts. China has reduced travel and trade ties with the island, and has also tried to isolate Taipei by freezing it out of international organizations and trying to sideline countries that were Taiwan’s diplomatic allies. The Chinese military conducted air and naval sorties to test Taiwan’s defenses and demonstrate its ability to attack the island.
In Taiwan, China’s response is expected
Many Taiwanese are bracing for further Chinese pressure. Political analysts say that China may increase “gray area” wars – such as military maneuvers aimed at harassing Taiwanese defenses and further reducing economic ties between the two sides.
Beijing has already signaled plans to reduce trade rights that were part of an economic agreement signed in 2010 in Taipei with the Kuomintang government. China stopped tariff cuts on imports of certain chemicals from Taiwan starting this month. Just days before the election, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced that it may extend the measure to additional goods, including agricultural products, machinery and textiles.
Under Xi’s leadership, Chinese officials must guard the “bottom line” and prepare for “extreme scenarios” such as the possibility of Taiwan seeking formal independence, said Chi Chong, a research fellow at the National Policy Institute, a Kuomintang-affiliated think tank in Taipei.
“There is almost no way that Beijing will not do anything,” said Qi, who expects more Chinese pressure based on the tactics employed over the past eight years. However, “I’m more concerned about the question of whether there are things we haven’t thought of.”
But for Xi, the risk is that continuing the tough tactics will only cement Taiwanese resentment towards Beijing – perhaps to the point of no return – and accelerate Taipei’s efforts to reduce the impact of Chinese coercion. Pressure from Beijing in the past has already led Taipei to seek closer trade and security relations with the US and other democracies – a very popular strategy among a China-fearful population.
Surveys of Taiwanese identity show a long-term deterioration in the perception of attachment to mainland China – a trend that experts say is difficult if not impossible to reverse.
More and more Taiwanese citizens believe their long-term future lies in an independent Taiwan rather than reunification or maintaining the status quo, after seeing how Beijing has suppressed political freedoms in Hong Kong in recent years, said Wu, the researcher, citing data compiled by Academia Sinica.
Analysts say one concern is that Beijing may come to believe it can no longer stem Taiwan’s slide toward formal independence, and must therefore seriously consider using military force to prevent such an outcome.
From Beijing’s perspective, “letting Taiwan go is not really an option,” said Yang, the historian. “It has to do with historical memory, it has to do with the legitimacy of the party.”
Therefore, Beijing will continue to pressure Taipei, despite the risk of it returning to it, because the alternative could be much worse. China believes, Yang said, that if it does not threaten Taiwan with the use of force, “this is it – Taiwanese independence one day later.”
Charles Holzer in Washington participated in the preparation of the article
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