The exchange of blows between Hamas and the IDF that began yesterday signal that in the Gaza Strip the trend of escalation is clear, when in the current reality it will be very difficult to stop it.
The IDF still believes that Hamas is not interested in war, and perhaps that is true, but without a doubt it is stretching the comparisons with Israel. The shooting figures from the Strip tell of a significant change in Hamas policy, which at the very least gives the green light to the other terrorist organizations to fire rockets.
This, as part of an attempt to establish a new equation according to which exceptional events will be met with shooting from the Strip – with the aim of trying to threaten Israeli freedom of action in the West Bank, East Jerusalem and the Temple Mount. Hamas cannot or does not want to continue to remain on the fence, and the first signs of this are already here.
In one month alone, starting at the end of January, over 40 rockets and anti-aircraft missiles were fired from the Strip at planes. The routine of alarms returned to the envelope after a long period of relative silence, during which months passed between one shooting incident and another.
In the coming days the Egyptians will again try to calm the area, but past experience shows that after an operation that led to a certain period of calm, the renewal of the rocket fire leads to a deluge, which leads to a significant round of skirmishes or another operation.
On normal days, the sensational news that inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency found uranium enriched to 84% in Iran would have been at the center of the Israeli government’s agenda. But these are not ordinary days. The same is said about the statement in the UN Security Council, which condemned the training of the outposts in Judea and Samaria.
The fight against nuclear power in Iran, which was once at the center of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s vision, has been pushed to the fringes of the agenda. The legal revolution, the political agenda, the power struggles within the government, the impending economic crisis, the burning Palestinian arena in East Jerusalem and Judea and Samaria, and very cold winds from Washington do not allow the Prime Minister to focus on his vision for curbing the nuclear program.
As a circus performer he is now required to juggle a very large number of balls in the air. Between one crisis and another, also Prime Minister Masundel. Israel is now unable to be focused on the political level vis-à-vis the countries of the world in conducting an effective campaign against Iran, which continues to take advantage of the war in Ukraine and the de facto absence of a nuclear agreement, for the purpose of making unprecedented progress on its way to the nuclear bomb.
A country that defines nuclear weapons in Iran as an existential threat should have placed the issue at the top of its priorities. In the diplomatic discourse, in discussions between the professional and political level, and more. Netanyahu, as the one who placed the Iranian issue at the center of the table during his years in office, is the first to ask what the last two months in which he has been in power have contributed to all of this.
In Israel, the focus this week was on the words of the American ambassador to Israel, Thomas Neides, who said in an interview on a CNN podcast that the American administration advised Netanyahu to press the brakes on everything related to the legal reform. Neidas also understood that in the diplomatic codes this was a clumsy and too rude statement, which was interpreted as a direct attempt by the Americans to interfere in Israel’s internal processes – and later this week he chose to refine and clarify his words.
But more than the brakes, this is actually a direct message from the administration of President Joe Biden. “The prime minister tells us that they want to do big things, like Iran, a big threat to Israel, the Middle East and the USA, and to expand the Abraham Accords with Saudi Arabia,” Neides said. “In both things, the USA plays an important role. We have many things that we are working on On them together and I told the Prime Minister a hundred times: ‘We can’t work together if your backyard is on fire.'”
Between the two possibilities that arise in connection with the finding of the fissile material in Iran to the level of 84% – a technical malfunction or a deliberate action – the security establishment tends to estimate that this is a deliberate signal from the Iranians, who are examining the area and the weak reactions in the world and at the International Atomic Energy Agency.
A Persian bazaar at its best examining the area for a possible decision, which has not yet been made in Iran, to enrich fissile material to the 90% level required for a nuclear bomb. The window of time is getting shorter and it has never been closer.
Now Israel is required to look ahead and remember that it is not the main player in the management of the crisis, and it needs the Americans. Netanyahu understands this very well, as can be understood from the publication of the decision to freeze at this stage the training of additional outposts in Judea and Samaria.
In recent months, there has been very good cooperation between the Israeli and American armies. But cooperation is also required at the political level, and therefore Yoav Galant as Minister of Defense has a very important role vis-à-vis an administration that openly expresses its dissatisfaction with Israeli policy, both regarding issues related to our democratic regime and regarding the conflict with the Palestinians.
The latest signals from the Americans should worry the Prime Minister very much, and all this when the Iranian issue is really burning.
Concern in the reserve system
Netanyahu is at a significant decision point regarding his own policy. We have written about this quite a bit recently. This is a combination of American signals regarding the possibility of moving away from Israel, rising security tensions in the Palestinian arena, and above all a deep crisis within Israeli society. A crisis that threatens to dismantle the necessary consensus for joint service in the army, and clouds the solidarity of most of the different population groups in Israeli society during combat.
It’s no wonder that Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah, who is one of the main people responsible for Lebanon’s dire situation, attacks the crisis in Israel and revives the cobweb theory of Israeli society. stringent.
It is possible to be in favor of the legal reform and still question whether this is the way and the time to carry it out in view of the many waves of opposition it generates, inside and outside Israel. It is permissible to ask how the conduct of the government in the last two months serves the biggest security-political challenge that Israel has had in the last decades, due to the intensifying nuclear threat against Iran.
It is permissible to make it difficult how, at such a critical point in time, the Iranian issue was relegated to a corner and the legal revolution took center stage as the first and most important challenge of the new Israeli government – before the escalation in the Palestinian arena in recent months, before the challenges of the internal governance and personal security, and even before the threats from Iran.
Perhaps some believe that the legal revolution, when it arrives, will bring relief to all. Because the source of all the problems lies in the professionals who intervene and for years have allegedly been hindering Netanyahu from carrying out his duties.
Alongside all these, the Palestinian arena continues to heat up and escalate. The day of the battle yesterday in Nablus, the high number of Palestinians killed and the amount of shooting that was carried out at the forces, like them as a sign of how explosive the situation is and will continue to be very tense, when the IDF estimates that the terrorist organizations will try to carry out revenge attacks.
In the Palestinian issue, it is evident that Netanyahu and Galant want to follow a pragmatic line. To indirectly maintain relations with the head of the Authority, Abu Mazen, and to avoid bringing unilateral measures. Netanyahu understands very well that his room for flexibility vis-a-vis the Americans is much narrower than his coalition promises to ministers Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben Gabir, and hence the tensions and the large gaps within the right-wing government.
Beyond the high number of Palestinians killed in action in Nablus, the terrorists who barricaded themselves in the house and decided not to surrender until they die express more than anything the trend on the ground. The security establishment talks about the potential for escalation in the month of Ramadan, but in fact Ramadan is already here.
There is no need to brand the last few months as a third intifada to state that since the end of the second intifada this is the most serious escalation, and all the warning lights are flashing bright red. About 60 Palestinians, most of them armed, have been killed since the beginning of the year. These are unprecedented numbers even in relation to the past year, which is also considered complex.
In the meantime, a compromise formula was found among the authorities in the Ministry of Defense, but senior officials who were exposed to the details claim that they will be difficult to implement in reality, so the next coalition crisis is only a matter of time.
In terms of internal challenges, senior military officials are very disturbed by the escalation of the conflict in Israeli society against the background of the legal revolution. More than anything, it is the reserve formation that worries the army. Many reserve units may be put to the test in the coming months because the IDF will need them.
In recent years, there has been a noticeable decrease in motivation and the percentage of reporting for reserve service, and this is even before the rift that is now cutting through society. Now the IDF fears a further decrease in the rate of those signing up for reserve service.
At the top of the army, they are warning in closed conversations about the fear that the political-social crisis will spill over into the army and cause a rift in the reserve system, which will be very difficult to nurse. Many are talking about a deep crisis that cannot be resolved at the level of commanders in the reserve or regular service.