Democratic state Representative James Talarico and Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton are locked in a fiercely contested U.S. Senate race in Texas ahead of the November 3, 2026 midterm elections, with recent statewide polls showing the two candidates running within the margin of error.
With the early voting period halfway over, both campaigns are crisscrossing the Lone Star State to rally their bases and capture undecided voters in what has become one of the most closely watched political contests in the country. The race is seeking to fill the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by Republican Senator John Cornyn, drawing intense national attention as Democrats attempt to break a three-decade losing streak in statewide Texas elections.
University of Houston Poll Shows Talarico and Paxton Separated by Two Points
A statewide survey of likely voters reports that James Talarico leads Ken Paxton 48% to 46% in the race for the U.S. Senate. Libertarian Ted Brown follows with 3% support, while another 3% of likely voters remain undecided.
That narrow margin aligns closely with a separate CBS News poll showing Talarico leading 51% to 49%, which was described as tightly contested and well within the margin of error. Despite the competitive numbers at the statewide level, deep regional divides continue to shape the electorate.
Among rural voters in Texas, Republican Ken Paxton holds an advantage, according to data from the University of Houston survey.
Campaign Stops in Laredo and Rallies Across Texas
Both candidates brought their closing arguments to Laredo during the final stretch of the campaign. Ken Paxton met with supporters on Friday, October 23, 2026, at Palenque Grill, where he signed autographs and outlined a platform centered on securing the border, completing the border wall, cutting taxes, and addressing the national debt, alongside supporting the “America First” movement and President Donald Trump’s legislative priorities.
James Talarico spoke to voters two days later on Sunday, October 25, 2026, at the Golondrina Food Park in Laredo. Talarico criticized his opponent during the gathering, telling supporters that voters can change the political system if they come together as Texans rather than party partisans.
The scheduling of campaign events has also underscored distinct strategic choices within the Democratic coalition. While Senator Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., appeared at an El Paso rally to criticize heavy campaign spending by outside groups, Talarico skipped the event to hold separate rallies in North Texas as part of his Frontera Tour
campaign tour.
Moderate Republicans and the Cornyn Bloc as Decisive Voters
A critical factor in the general election is how the Texans who voted for John Cornyn in the Republican primary decide to cast their ballots after Cornyn lost the primary runoff to Paxton. More than 500,000 voters backed Cornyn in that May runoff, creating a coveted bloc of moderate Republicans currently weighing whether to support Paxton, cross party lines for Talarico, or abstain entirely.
Paxton’s fate is in the hands of those moderate Republicans, who he and many of his colleagues have long vilified – the Cornyn voters, the Bush voters.
Mark Jones, political scientist at Rice University
Survey data from Texas Southern University’s Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center indicates that more than one-fourth of the 15% of Texas Republicans identifying as moderate Republicans plan to vote for Talarico. At the same time, national super PAC support and substantial fundraising have enabled Talarico to compete on financial terms, even as outside conservative figures like Elon Musk have injected money into late-campaign efforts to rescue Paxton’s candidacy.
Talarico would vote to take away your kids and transition them, not just in Texas, but nationwide. Pure evil. https://t.co/3klyOjV4PC