[위클리 리포트] Fruit prices fluctuate every year due to climate change
This summer’s heat wave and torrential rain one after another… Supply disruption due to delayed strawberry production season
In Jeju, citrus heat and damage are serious… Sugar content and pulp quality have also decreased significantly.
Bank of Korea announces price analysis report… “10% of the increase is due to high temperatures, etc.”
Europe and other parts of the world are suffering from heat waves… Olive oil production decreased by about half
《The Garak Market in Songpa-gu, Seoul, the largest wholesale market for agricultural and marine products in Korea, was hot with fruit trading from all over the country even in the early morning of the 25th, Christmas Day. At the Seoul Office and Fruit Auction House located within the market, the first item to be traded at 2 a.m. that day was strawberries. The auction proceeded with the strawberry grower, breed, grade, weight, quantity, etc. displayed at every moment on the electronic display board of the auction stand, where the attention of wholesalers participating in the auction was focused. On this day, the auction of fruits and vegetables such as tangerines, sweet persimmons, grapes, melons, and tomatoes, piled up in boxes, continued at fruit auction halls throughout Garak Market. However, even though winter fruits have begun to be shipped in earnest, the average price of many fruits is significantly higher than previous years.》
● “Torrential rain – heat wave… “This year is the worst strawberry farming in 15 years.”
According to the Korea Agro-Fisheries and Food Trade Corporation (aT) on the 27th, the price (product) of 100g of strawberries as of the 24th was 2,722 won, 13.3% higher than a year ago and 28.6% higher than the average year. The price of ten tangerines, which represent winter fruits along with strawberries, is 4,235 won, which is 9.9% more expensive than a year ago and 46.0% more expensive than the average year (2,901 won).
Prices of other fruits and vegetables such as tomatoes (35.6%), cherry tomatoes (34.4%), and pears (17.5%) remain higher than normal. Park Sang-hyuk, head of the fruit department at the Seoul Metropolitan Government (auctioneer, 55), who has been working at fruit auctions for over 30 years, said, “Not only apples, which were seriously hit by the cold weather during the flowering season last year, but also major domestic fruits such as strawberries, tangerines, and pears have continued to show good harvests in recent years. “It is a concern for the fruit distribution industry that it is missing,” he said.
Farmers are citing the summer weather, which includes heat waves, tropical nights, late heat, and torrential rain, as the main reason for the sluggish fruit harvest this year. Park Hyeong-gyu (70), who farms strawberries in Nonsan, South Chungcheong Province, said, “I have been farming strawberries for 15 years, and this year was the worst year for growing strawberries.” “Growth was sluggish due to the heat wave,” he said. Due to damage from rain and high temperatures, the ‘very planting’ period, which involves properly transplanting strawberry seedlings, was delayed, and they also suffered from stem blight and anthracnose. He said, “Because the temperature does not drop even in late summer, there are quite a few farmers who delayed planting by about a week, which used to be done between the end of August and September 10th. Because of this, only 40 to 60 strawberries, which should be 100 at this time of year, are being planted. “Production has decreased significantly,” he explained.
Experts also believe that the strawberry production season has been delayed this year due to the weather, making supply and demand of strawberries in the early stages of shipment difficult. Park Han-ul, head of the fruit and vegetable observation team at the Korea Rural Economic Institute, said, “Planting has been delayed and insufficient sunlight in October and November affects growth, so prices are rising. Since sunlight has recovered from early December, prices are rising in the future.” “We are expecting a relatively smooth delivery,” he said.
● Jeju tangerines are bursting in rows as temperatures soar every year.
In Jeju, the main growing area for domestic citrus fruits, the heat and damage (splitting or bursting of fruit) caused by this summer’s heat wave and tropical nights are reducing actual production in the winter. According to the office of Representative Moon Dae-rim of the Democratic Party of Korea, in the Jeju region, heat and damage occurred in 23.3% of the total number of open-field tangerine fruits this year. The scale is nearly three times that of last year’s heat damage (8.2%). Among these, in the case of red scent, which is considered a high-quality citrus fruit, the heat and damage area was 36.5%, an increase of 10.8 percentage points from a year ago (25.7%). Due to an imbalance in the growth of the skin and flesh (contents), the heat and damage caused by the skin not being larger than the flesh is caused by excessive supply of moisture or high temperature.
Yang Sang-hong (78), who grows red fragrant fruits in Seogwipo-si, Jeju, said, “This year, the trees were in good condition, so I thinned out a lot of fruit (red fruits), but due to the heat wave, all the red fragrant fruits started to break after August.” “To prevent it from losing, we pruned it by paying a daily wage of 250,000 won, but in the end, less than 10% of the fruit that could be used as a product was produced.” In the case of Seogwipo City, which has a higher average temperature than Jeju City, the heat and damage began in earnest two to three years ago, and Mr. Yang explains that it is getting worse every year.
Moon Young-il, a researcher at the Citrus Research Center of the National Institute of Horticultural and Herbal Science under the Rural Development Administration, said, “As the heat wave and heavy rain overlapped this summer, a lot of tangerines in the open field were ripe,” adding, “There is a high probability that the abnormal climate will continue in the future, but this year clearly showed the damage.” pointed out.
This year, in Jeju, citrus fruits grew too thick, causing problems of both sugar content and marketability. Normally, the smaller the citrus fruits such as open field tangerines, hallabongs, and oranges, the higher the sugar content, but this year in the Jeju region, due to excessive growth due to the heat wave, the harvest of commercial citrus fruits, which are small in size and high in sugar content, has decreased significantly. Oh Byeong-guk (77), chairman of the Jeju Island Research Association for Red Fragrance, said, “As the number of citrus fruits decreases, the size of the fruit has become too large. In the case of red scent, if it weighs more than 400-500g, it is too big and the sugar content is low, making it difficult to sell.”
● “10% of the recent price increase is caused by abnormal weather.”
Following last year’s apples and pears, this year’s strawberries and tangerines are also suffering damage, raising concerns across the food industry. If the production of major fruits decreases due to abnormal temperatures, etc., not only will prices rise sharply, but supply and quality control will also face difficulties.
In fact, in the case of apples and pears, production decreased by 30.3% and 26.8%, respectively, compared to a year ago, due to damage from anthracnose and cold damage during the flowering season last year. Accordingly, from the beginning of this year to fall, the two fruits were sold at prices that were more than twice as high as a year ago, putting a burden on overall food prices.
As it was predicted that shipments of early-ripening tangerines would decrease this year due to heat and damage, the distribution industry began checking the actual situation on Jeju from time to time starting in the fall and began securing pre-contract cultivation and storage quantities. Kim Gyu-hyo, deputy director of the Seoul Metropolitan Government and Fruit Department (auctioneer, 46), said, “In the case of domestic fruits, it feels like the damage caused by climate change has increased over the past 4 to 5 years. Abnormal climate not only reduces fruit production, but also reduces sugar content and pulp quality. “Because it has a negative effect on coloring, etc., it results in consuming poor-quality fruits at a higher price than usual,” he said.
Previously, in August of this year, the Bank of Korea released an analysis in its report ‘The Impact of Abnormal Climate on the Real Economy’ that abnormal climate such as high temperatures was responsible for about 10% of the increase in prices in Korea since last year until recently. This is the result of analyzing the correlation between Korea’s Extreme Climate Index (CRI), industrial production, and consumer price inflation rates from 2001 to 2023. In particular, the shock of abnormal climate increased the consumer price inflation rate by 0.03 percentage points within three months from the time of occurrence, and among them, groceries, fruits, and vegetables were found to be the most affected.
● ‘Emergency’ in overseas markets such as cocoa and olive oil
Climate change is taking a serious toll on crop production not only domestically but also around the world. Crops are frequently experiencing poor harvests due to temperature or precipitation damage in many crops, including cacao, the main ingredient in chocolate, coffee, and olives.
The price of cocoa futures traded on the U.S. ICE Futures Exchange was $12,565 (about 18.38 million won) per ton as of the closing price on the 18th, a 194.2% surge from the same period last year ($4,271). This is the result of the cacao harvest in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana, the world’s first and second largest producers, plummeting by more than 30% compared to a year ago due to abnormal climate and infectious diseases.
The price of olive oil is also unusual. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the international olive oil price in the first quarter of this year (January to March) was $10,088 (about 14.76 million won) per ton, up more than 70% compared to the same period last year. Europe, which accounts for 60% of the world’s olive production, suffered from record-breaking heat last summer, causing poor olive fruit production at the beginning of the year and causing damage to olive fruits falling off their stems in the summer. Accordingly, the U.S. Department of Agriculture calculated that olive oil production in Europe fell by nearly half last year.
According to the Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs, the World Food Price Index published by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) also recorded 127.5 last month, breaking the highest level in 19 months. This index is a figure that investigates the price trends of 24 food items and compares the average price from 2014 to 2016 with 100. Among major product groups, the oil and fat price index soared to 164.1, rising 7.5% in one month. In the case of palm oil prices, it was analyzed that the possibility of a decrease in production in Southeast Asia due to excessive rainfall drove up prices.
For Korea, which is already experiencing uncertainties in the supply and demand of fruits and vegetables, the burden of food prices could increase due to overseas situations. Experts point out that it is an urgent time to improve breeds and secure infrastructure to respond to climate change.
Moon Jeong-hoon, a professor in the Department of Agricultural Economics and Sociology at Seoul National University, said, “Climate change with rising average temperatures has already become a constant, so the government needs to actively develop varieties that can adapt to these changes.” “Support is also needed to transition to climate change,” he said. This means that the government and local governments need to be proactive in tasks such as cultivar development or crop conversion that require large investments of time and money. Professor Moon added, “Farmers also need to equip themselves with equipment and technology to prevent damage from high temperatures or heavy rains and make efforts to respond to climate change by cultivating a variety of varieties.”