2023-07-23 10:02:36
In a crisis situation, crisis elections. The Spaniards are called to the polls on Sunday July 23 for early legislative elections convened by Pedro Sanchez, the socialist Prime Minister of the country. This decision follows the failure of his party in the regional elections in May. The PSOE (socialists), the People’s Party (liberal conservative), Sumar (extreme left) and Vox (extreme right), will clash, or join forces, to conquer parliament.
According to an Ipsos poll, carried out for the newspaper “La Vanguardia”, Vox would obtain 12.6% of the vote. In the event of a coalition with the PP, which would collect 35% of the votes, they could govern with an absolute majority. According to this scenario, even if the PSOE and Sumar allied, they would not have enough seats to run the country.
Sophie Baby, lecturer and author of “History of Spain in the present day: Francoism, transition and democracy”, sheds light on the situation.
Did Pedro Sanchez take a risk by asking for these early elections?
He bet on going on the offensive to try to maintain his majority in power. He wanted to take advantage of his presidency in the EU, take advantage of the international aura that it confers, to put the Spaniards against the alliances between his great rival, the People’s Party, and Vox. These two parties have already built coalitions in regional governments following the elections. Despite what is said, the Socialist Party did not come out so badly in the last elections. It is above all Podemos that has collapsed. The polls give the People’s Party the lead, but everything will depend on the weight of the alliances. The PSOE’s new ally must be consistent. What will make these elections are the coalitions that will result with Vox or Sumar. It will be played very little.
If the PP has an absolute majority, it’s settled. If this is not the case, there may be several weeks of discussions with Vox and we can find ourselves in the same situation as 2019 because there is no government being forged. If so, Sumar might have a chance of finding a stable coalition with the PSOE. The country has always governed in coalition, but for the extreme right to be part of it would be a first.
Vox has a strategy that allows it to take on a much higher importance than the reality of its electorate
Is this rise of the extreme right in Spain dangerous?
The Vox party is a very recent party since it dates from 2014. It is mainly made up of defectors from the People’s Party. It’s a party that skyrocketed around 2018, but now it’s stagnating in the polls. However, Vox has managed to establish itself in the political landscape and it is not an easy task. The group has a strategy that allows it to take on a much greater importance than the reality of its electorate. The party itself will not win the elections, but in Spain what matters are the coalitions. If Vox wins alongside the PP, it is symbolically important. This would mean that this small far-right party becomes a government party, it gives it credibility. If they achieve this alliance, they will not just want to sign agreements but push to demand government positions.
How would an entry of the extreme right into government in Spain translate?
The consequences of the far right in power have already been seen in regional governments. There are anti-feminist discourses, anti-social laws, especially against the LGBT community. During the last gay marches in the country, Vox succeeded in getting some town halls to remove the rainbow flag from their storefronts. The cultural and social implications will be evident if Vox comes to power. They lead a strong ideological battle in Spain.
There are demonstrations brandishing the specter of fascism, a real mobilization against the rise of the extreme right is taking hold in the country. In France, we are used to mobilizing. For them, it’s new.
#enters #government