Scientists Warn Thawing Arctic Permafrost May Release “Time-Traveling Pathogens” That Could Threaten Modern Ecosystems
Researchers have suggested that as the climate warms, thawing Arctic permafrost could release ancient pathogens, dubbed “time-traveling pathogens,” which pose a risk to modern ecosystems. Permafrost, which is a layer of frozen ground found in high-latitude areas, such as Greenland, Alaska, Siberia, the Tibetan Plateau, and northern Canada, contains dormant microbes that could come back to life as the planet warms. In a study published in the journal PLOS Computational Biology, an international team of researchers used digital modeling to examine the interactions between an ancient virus and modern bacteria. The researchers found that about 1% of the ancient viruses caused major disruptions to the digital ecosystems, either increasing or decreasing species diversity. They used a software called Avida to simulate the infiltration of pathogens into an ecosystem and found that the viruses acted like parasites, leaching off suitable bacterial hosts, leading to the death of the hosts.
Lead author Giovanni Strona and coauthor Corey Bradshaw noted that while the risk of dying from reawakened ancient viruses is low, the findings add to concerns about the consequences of a warming climate. In recent years, more research has focused on the impact of permafrost melt, including a NASA study in January 2022 that investigated the effects of carbon release during thawing events. Another study conducted by Jean-Michel Claverie, a professor emeritus of medicine and genomics, revealed ancient viruses revived from permafrost. Based on Claverie’s work, Bradshaw and Strona designed a simulation to quantify the consequences of these pathogens, highlighting the large number of potential viruses that could escape from permafrost. The research team emphasized the need to slow or stop carbon emissions to prevent further ecological disruptions.
While the chance of infection from these emerging pathogens is still considered highly improbable, experts agree that more research is needed to fully understand the risks. Dr. Kimberley Miner, a climate scientist at the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, believes there are more pressing concerns with the climate crisis that are more controllable, such as reducing carbon emissions. Although the areas with permafrost are sparsely populated, the gradual thawing and abrupt thaws pose risks to ecosystems. With global temperature increasing, abrupt thaws in Arctic permafrost are expected to become more frequent. Researchers Strona and Bradshaw stressed the importance of studying the implications of their findings on human and animal populations to develop a framework for assessing the risk of ancient pathogens.