2023-06-09 17:03:39
Ukraine advanced in the deployment of its counteroffensive to try to break the line of defense of Russia territories of the southeastern border that remain under occupation.
After months of preparation, spring enabled the troops commanded by Volodímir Zelenski to intensify its activities to favor its position, especially in Jerson, one of the regions that serve as a land bridge to the Crimean Peninsula, a military enclave annexed by Russia.
However, on the side of the Ukrainian government there is a strong secrecy regarding the data that could account for the much-announced Ukrainian counter-offensive while it tries against time to guarantee progress in the first stage of the war. Added to this are accusations between kyiv and Moscow for various incidents, including the devastating bombing of the Kajovka dam that caused mass evacuations in recent days.
What is known about the Ukrainian counteroffensive
For weeks, kyiv has multiplied surprise actions to condition the battlefield: drones in Moscow, attacks on Russian soil, reconnaissance operations to test the enemy’s defenses.
Although there are no official figures, the Ukrainian advance was evidenced by the Russian Ministry of Defense. Quoting its head Sergei Shoigu, he assured via Telegram that the Ukrainian 47th Mechanized Brigade had made four attempts to break through the Russian lines with up to 1,500 people and 150 armored vehicles in the southern region of Zaporizhiaunder Russian occupation.
According to some analysts, this would indicate that the much-announced Ukrainian counteroffensive would have taken its first steps. “In view of the use of Western materials, it seems that the Ukrainian offensive is underway,” said US analyst Michael Kofman, quoted by the Financial Times.
This vision was contributed by the leading Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in the United States. He not only indicated that “the Ukrainian counter-offensive has begun”, but also that “not only a big operation” but a series of coordinated actions by Kiev are expected to break through the Russian defense line.
Meanwhile, Moscow claims to have repelled an attack in the region and inflicted “significant losses” on Ukrainian troops in terms of soldiers and weapons, Shoigu added.
The combat in that region is transcendental for both sides. On the Russian side, the front in Zaporizhia is “fortified” but with less density than in other regions such as Donetsk, despite the fact that it is home to Melitopol, a strategic objective for Russia because it allows it to maintain the united front. “If they reach Melitópol it is a strategic objective because the front is cut in two. All the indications converge in that area,” French military historian Michel Goya told AFP.
Doubts about the counteroffensive
However, following the line adopted in recent days, the Ukrainian authorities are very vague regarding the tenor of their actions. Ukrainian officials gave few details on how things are going. After visiting the evacuees in the flooded areas of Zaporizhia, the president Volodímir Zelenski described “very hard battles”.
“There is a result, and I am grateful to everyone who secures the result!” he said in his speech on Thursday night. However, it is possible that he was referring to the fight around Bajmutwhich is in a very different part of the front line, and where Ukrainian forces have made limited progress recently.
Beyond the statements from both sides and the accusations, there is still no accurate information about what is really happening on the battlefront and to what extent Ukraine has advanced in its counteroffensive.
What is at stake for Ukraine
And it is that Ukraine The stakes are high, and the authorities know that they will not have many opportunities to repel the Russians and recover the occupied territories in the south and east of the country.
“The pressure on the Ukrainians is very strong, and perhaps we are at a turning point in the war,” a senior French army commander said on Wednesday, referring to preparatory actions that he said are part of the counteroffensive.
“I have the feeling that they will go for everything. If it works, they will negotiate in a position of strength, and if it doesn’t work (…) in less than two years there are elections in the United States, some deposits (of Western weapons) have reached critical levels , and they know that the situation is tense,” the officer said.
And he added that “if it does not work, the negotiation will be carried out under less advantageous conditions” for the Ukrainians, who “know this very well” and for this very reason are “betting big”.
The “Faberge line”
Along the front, the Russians deployed “about six defensive lines,” a French military source explained. In the Zaporizhia area in the south, some Russians dubbed this strategy the “Fabergé line,” referring to the structure of the famous pieces of jewelry made for the tsars in the 19th century.
“The first line is made up of support points that allow us to see what is happening, the second is aimed at stopping an attack and is heavily mined. Then there is the artillery, the first tanks for the counterattack and at the end the reserves, and then command posts and logistics,” the officer explained. All this structure occupies about 30 kilometers.
For the Ukrainians, “the initial operations of the counteroffensive could be the most difficult and the slowest,” according to the ISW.
“Initial setbacks are expected” before they can break through the defense lines, which the Russians have established and consolidated for months. “It is hard for me to think that one of the belligerents can impose an advantage on the other,” a Western intelligence source said last week.
The propaganda on both sides is going to kick in and it will be impossible for a while to assess success or failure.
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