2023-11-04 13:27:00
Patricia Bullrich was not wrong when, on the eve of the elimination, perhaps provisional, of the moderate center as a viable option for a society immersed in a deep crisis, she said that if it were not for the proximity of the elections, the country would have already gone down the drain. airs. The fact is that the very long soap opera that members of the stable cast of national politics continue to star in has served to distract the attention of many from the extreme seriousness of what is happening in a country that seems to prefer to let itself die rather than try to cure itself of its many ills.
With its conflicts, betrayals and unexpected alliances, the political melodrama has functioned as a soporific but, despite the eventual winner of the runoff between Sergio Massa and Javier Milei, when people finally open their eyes, they will find themselves in a country that It will be very different from that imagined by those who took seriously the rhetoric of the two characters who are still standing. Many will feel cheated. How will they react? This is a question that few are willing to ask themselves.
In addition to running the not merely theoretical risk of being crushed by another hyperinflationary hurricane that, if it occurred, would impoverish millions more families, Argentina is bankrupt. There is nothing in the Central Bank. The lack of fuel that is causing so many problems is a perfect metaphor for what awaits the country: with an empty tank, it will not be able to go anywhere. With his hitherto very successful “small money plan”, Massa, who apparently has an advantage in the race that is approaching its end, managed to make people think that the prospects were not as bad as the numbers would make us think, but he will understand very well that If it is his turn to win, it will not be possible for him to keep the illusion thus assumed alive.
For his part, Milei took advantage of the widespread conviction that, without structural reforms, which would have to be drastic, the country would soon become what he says would be “the largest slum in the world,” but he overlooked the enormous difficulties that would face a government determined to carry out the ultraliberal program it had in mind. What made him so attractive to almost a third of the electorate who took the trouble to go to the dark room a couple of weeks ago was his rabid vehemence and his visceral contempt for “caste”, but, as every politician knows, getting votes It is one thing and governing with a minimum of efficiency is another very, very different thing.
For the many who do not agree with either Massa or Milei, it is a matter of deciding which of the two is the least dangerous. Some fear that the mobile Peronist has proposed to emulate Néstor Kirchner who, alternating in the presidency with his wife, sought to remain in power forever, which is why they believe that it would be better to bet on the “crazy” libertarian and, if elected, try to constrict him in a legislative straitjacket and thus prevent him from causing disasters.
It was for this reason that Mauricio Macri and Bullrich rushed to support him, which earned them the foreseeable instant repudiation from radicals like Gerardo Morales and Martín Lousteau who feel close to Massa, and from others, including members of the Pro, who criticized them. for not consulting organically with the other members of Together for Change, something that, in view of the radical traditions in the matter, would have forced them to participate in endless committee discussions.
It is impossible to predict what Massa will do if he transforms from the de facto president into the de jure president with all the attributes of the position. The only certainty is that he would replace the over-the-top politician of the extraordinarily expensive proselytizing campaign that has brought him to the door of the Casa Rosada, with one that is strikingly less generous because he will not have enough money to satisfy those who believe they deserve to be rewarded for their services. that they have given him, not to mention the millions who pray for his help.
Much would depend on what – in addition to the presidency of the Republic – the man wants most. Does he aspire to be the leader of a very poor, corrupt and chaotic country that is condemned to roam the world interspersing diatribes against the international financial system with moving requests for humanitarian aid? Or is it that, without having mentioned it to the Kirchnerists who accompany him, he dreams of beginning an epic marked by the rebirth of national capitalism?
The most likely thing would be that an eventual President Massa would opt for a position that would please the North Americans, Europeans and Japanese who make up the international red circle but that would be resisted with increasing fury by the Kirchnerists, their piquetero allies and the local progress who are committed emotionally with the ancient corporate model that is disintegrating under its own weight.
In that case, a government led by Massa would choose a strategy quite similar to the one that Macri, who has reason to hate him, would like Milei to adopt after realizing that trying to clear the sociopolitical landscape with his emblematic chainsaw would only serve to unleash a immense conflagration that would be fatal for his management and for the cause of which he has set himself up as champion.
From the point of view of Macri, who long ago celebrated Milei’s emergence by becoming convinced that he embodied an ideology that was an extremist version of his own, the libertarian deserves his support because he radically changed the country’s political conversation by vindicating economic principles that They are respected in the rest of the world but are often considered heretical in populist and congenitally inflationary Argentina. This being the case, it should not have surprised anyone how quickly the former president, who is far from being a political novice, expressed his willingness to support him. He seems to believe that, as long as he manages to calm him down, Milei could be the formal leader of a center-right coalition similar to those that, in Europe, for years managed to promote economic modernization and preserve social peace; Although today such groups are in trouble, the problems that are afflicting them began to make themselves felt after a period of vigorous growth that Argentina has not yet gone through.
Anyway, the story won’t end on November 19. There is no guarantee that, once the electoral competition is over, the country will enter a stage that is marked by stability, as was the case in other times. To consolidate its power, the government that takes office in December will have to persuade those who fear falling into absolute misery that it will be able to maintain a certain order and that it will very soon alleviate the economic difficulties that, largely due to the waste of government resources, the last few months, are destined to get much worse in the coming weeks.
Needless to say, it won’t be easy for you. It is therefore to be expected that the next president will disappoint his supporters; If he turns out to be Massa, he will have to deal with a painful adjustment that, of course, he will attribute to IMF pressures; If it is Milei, even if he desists from tearing up the State, dollarizing everything and blowing up the Central Bank, any measure he takes to organize the economy would unleash massive protests.
Without going into details, Massa, who is one of the main architects of the country that actually exists, suggests that he will try to perpetuate the status quo until, finally, there is a good harvest and Vaca Muerta generates immense quantities of oil and gas that, In addition to filling government coffers with hard cash, they attract large-scale investments. Although the Minister of Economy cannot help but know very well that it would be suicidal to continue along the route chosen by government partners who have been erased, he understands that it is in his interest to pretend to believe in the possibility of doing so until, finally, all the votes have been cast. been duly counted. For him, deceiving people is what every self-respecting professional politician does. Could the same be said of Milei? The radicals and pigeons of the Pro are not the only ones who fear that he will take very seriously their most extravagant ideas about how good it would be to cause an anarcho-capitalist Big Bang.
In addition to forcing citizens to choose between two characters who, for different reasons, motivate a lot of fear in very broad sectors, the electoral results showed that society as a whole has not prepared itself to face the problems that the collision with the harsh socioeconomic and political reality that is about to occur. It would seem that the majority mood is dominated by a mixture of voluntarism on the part of those who believe that their preferred candidate will be able to save them from the worst and escapism on the part of those who refuse to recognize that the current situation is unsustainable, which, For most, it is already calamitous. Many cling to the hope that the country will be able to recover without themselves being harmed by what whoever dresses up as president does – or does not do -; others will limit themselves to expressing their anguish by voting blank or refusing to participate in what which in his opinion is a farce, all of which raises fears that the ruinous populist cycle that has done so much damage to the country is far from having ended.
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