the ambiguities of “boundless friendship”

by time news

Will the setbacks of the Russian army in Ukraine test the “limitless” friendship between China and Russia? The meeting between Xi Jinping and Vladimir Poutine, Thursday September 15 in Samarkand (Uzbekistan), the first since the invasion of February 24, will have value of test. The two heads of state agree on their opposition to the United States and Western democracies, and share the same desire to stay in power as long as possible.

The Kremlin thus assured that the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) constituted “a real alternative to Western-oriented structures”. Beijing did not condemn Moscow’s intervention in Ukraine and denounced Western sanctions and arms sales to kyiv. This official discourse masks, however, notes Bobo Lo, a researcher at the Lowy Institute, the reality of a “relationship based on interests between strategically autonomous actors”.

China’s posture in the war in Ukraine clearly reflects this ambiguity. «Beijing supports Moscow politically and implicitly, but does not interfere militarily in the conflict and respects international sanctions against Russia,” writes Marc Julienne, researcher at the French Institute of International Relations (Ifri) in the latest issue of the journal Foreign politic (1).

At the same time, he adds, «unilateral recognition by Russia of the self-proclaimed people’s republics of Luhansk and Donetsk, followed by the invasion of Ukraine, a sovereign state member of the UN and recognized by the People’s Republic of China, contradicts Chinese diplomatic doctrine and sets a precedent dangerous for Beijing, which is familiar with independence movements (Tibet, Xinjiang, Taiwan) and fears seeing them supported by foreign powers.»

Struggle for influence in Central Asia

The meeting of the two leaders also comes against the backdrop of a struggle for influence in Central Asia, where the two powers have long maintained a “quiet rivalry”. Ultimately, the rise of China and the weakening of Russia could modify the balance of power in this region. Russia’s war against Ukraine is reducing Moscow’s ability to ensure a security presence there and Beijing should take advantage of this to consolidate its positions.

Xi and Putin had met on the sidelines of the Beijing Winter Olympics last year, where they announced their partnership just weeks before the invasion of Ukraine. Some analysts now expect Putin to seek more help from China after recent military setbacks for the Russian military. For its part, Beijing is measuring its support for Moscow to preserve its access to the world market and minimize the impact on its economy of the sanctions imposed by Western countries on Russia.

Joint military exercises

China is said to have provided parts for drones, however, and the two countries participated in joint military exercises in the Sea of ​​Japan last week. With Russia under pressure in Ukraine, Xi could express more rhetorical support by criticizing NATO and the United States more. «The war in Ukraine exacerbates the asymmetry of the Sino-Russian relationship, emphasizes Marc Julienne. With the risk for Russia of becoming entirely dependent on China at the economic, diplomatic, scientific, technological and, tomorrow perhaps, military levels. »

You may also like

Leave a Comment