2024-07-30 06:48:36
dig/ The Gabonese economy is not doing well. After the alarming forecasts of the rating agency Moody’s on the country’s high debt rate and the poor budgetary and economic orientation of the transitional government, it is the turn of the American Fitch Ratings to sound the alarm.
In fact, the American rating agency, in turn, on July 26, 2024, lowered the rating on Gabon’s foreign currency loans from B- to CCC+, due, it shows, “weighing increasing risks to Gabon’s ability to repay its debt.”
According to the American agency, Gabon has already accumulated external arrears estimated at $273.1 million at the end of May and in 2025 it is estimated that $605 million will be paid on its Eurobonds.
Fitch Ratings’ fears are correlated with the transitional government’s increasingly “extended” economic policy, it shows. budgetary expenditure and revenue margins were always limited.
According to agency analysts, Oil revenue, which accounts for half of the Treasury’s public income, is expected to decline from 2025 due to falling prices and production.
“The government plans to increase recruitment in the public sector, clear pension arrears and add new tax exemptions, without a concrete budget adjustment plan.
As a result, Gabon will go from a budget surplus of 1.1% in 2022 to a deficit of 3.9% of GDP in 2024, then 5.3% in 2025 and 5.8% in 2026.
In addition, the country’s financing needs will increase significantly (on average to 13.2% of GDP between 2025 and 2026) and growth will remain “moderate”., concerns the American rating agency.
According to his prediction, Gabon’s public debt would increase to 79% of GDP in 2026 compared to 70.4% at the end of 2023 (compared to a previous estimate of 56%).
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