He notes that in the background of the Kursk operation, an obvious question arises: why send troops to Russia, creating a new front line, if Ukraine has serious problems in the Donbass. According to the analyst, Kiev’s decision to launch the operation, given the obvious problems, shows plans for the long-term trajectory of the war.
“It is quite possible, although it is not yet clear, that the offensive in the Kursk region is not just an opportunistic move, but rather part of a wider military campaign that could last until 2025, purposefully preparing the ground for operations elsewhere,” writes Denis.
The second main conclusion of the analyst is that Ukraine has demonstrated its ability to conduct maneuver warfare by unifying all types of armed forces, which it failed to achieve in 2023. summer counterattack.
According to Mr. Denis, if his conclusions are correct, the offensive in the Kursk region could prove to be a major turning point in the war.
The analyst admits that this operation had an obvious political impact, especially affecting the attitude of Ukraine’s Western partners towards the war. However, he believes that it is “hard to believe” that the main goal of the attack was purely political and aimed to strengthen Kiev’s negotiating position in the “non-existent peace talks” and encourage more help from the West.
“The conclusion that Ukraine would send thousands of troops north for a risky operation on Russian territory — as its forces are slowly losing ground in the south and east — for purely political reasons seems dubious at best,” he wrote.
J. Denis rejected the claims made by the Ukrainian side that the operation in Kursk was intended to stop the Russian logistical actions and to draw them away from the border so that they would stop shelling the city of Sumy. In his opinion, taking into account the extremely limited zone of attack of the Ukrainians, there will be no significant impact on these goals.
On the other hand, the analyst is more inclined to believe that Ukraine is actually trying to distract Russian troops from the front in Donbass and Zaporozhye. In addition, the Russians will have to devote resources to this in the long run.
At the same time, Mr. Denis doubts that, after the transfer of some Russian troops to Kursk, the command of the Ukrainian Armed Forces will have the opportunity to launch a counterattack on the territory of Ukraine. After all, the Ukrainian forces there are too exhausted, and the Russian defensive fortifications have not disappeared anywhere.
“On the other hand, the offensive in the Kursk area could be part of a broader, long-term campaign strategy to buy time for Ukrainian forces to recover before the end of this year, while halting the slow but steady advance of Russian forces to the east,” writes the analyst, first of all, recalling the mobilization of Ukraine, which began to accelerate only in the summer.
At the same time, Mr. Denis does not think that the Kursk operation will fundamentally change the trajectory of the conflict in the near future.
“Union” inf.
2024-08-18 12:35:01