Dspeeches at the Sorbonne, attempts on both sides to speak with one voice on energy or on the European response to American subsidies: the 60th anniversary of the Elysée Treaty, a symbol of Franco-French reconciliation -German, was carefully staged on 22 January.
The latter was all the more necessary since there have been many disagreements over the past few months. The friendship treaty signed between France and Spain three days earlier also showed that Paris considered it essential to acquire other diplomatic levers on the European continent.
It is doubtful, however, that the goodwill displayed by Emmanuel Macron and Olaf Scholz is enough to convince that the Franco-German “locomotive”, an ambition claimed by the two leaders, is indeed back on track and that it is able to bring along its partners in the European Union. It would first be necessary to respond to a breakdown, that which concerns the credibility of the tandem since the earthquake constituted by the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
The return of war to European soil abruptly closed the parenthesis of the “peace dividends” opened by the implosion of the USSR in 1991. Everywhere, the “change of time” Acted by Chancellor Olaf Scholz, a few days after the Russian invasion, pushes European countries to rearm.
After Germany’s laborious turnaround and the Chancellor’s commitment in September to make the continent’s leading economic power “the mainstay of conventional defense in Europe” et “the best equipped armed force in Europe”Emmanuel Macron announced in turn a historic increase in the defense budget of France, an envelope of more than 400 billion euros in total over seven years.
The authority of Berlin as of Paris is however put to the test. German reluctance to a green light that would allow other European countries equipped with Leopard tanks sold by Germany to transfer them to Ukraine underlines its difficulty in translating the “change of era” into facts, to reassure its neighbors, it has long refused any major military commitment outside its borders, as well as the sale of its equipment in countries at war. The incomprehension, even the exasperation aroused by Berlin’s reservations, while the fear of a new Russian offensive on Ukrainian soil hovers, will not dissipate anytime soon.
Forgotten imperatives
Paris faces another hurdle. A European rearmament could have been conducive, if it had been carried out coldly, to the emergence of “European sovereignty” in terms of defense for which Emmanuel Macron continues to plead not without arguments, the reliability of Washington can no longer be considered as immarcescible since the mandate of Donald Trump.
But the urgency that presides over this rearmament means that NATO remains the main beneficiary, which Berlin is delighted with, along with the defense industry of the United States. The latter appears to be the only one not to be totally overwhelmed by the forgotten imperatives of a conventional war that wears out men and materials.
The anniversary of the Elysée Treaty could have been conducive to a strong gesture in favor of Ukraine. Even if no one can doubt their determination to support kyiv, Germany and France have nevertheless avoided it.