The Senate, where Michel Barnier has a large majority, will take control of the budget on Wednesday, with this “revenue” part being examined in the Finance Committee.
Deputies are called to a solemn vote on Tuesday around 4.30pm on the first part of the 2025 state budget, dedicated to revenue. This aspect could be rejected by the National Assembly, before the Senate takes it up again on Wednesday.
But the version put to the vote no longer has anything to do with the text presented by Michel Barnier at the beginning of October: after the victories obtained by the opposition, in particular by the left, billions of additional revenues were voted on, and rejected several flagship measures (vehicle fine, dividend tax, electricity surcharge, etc.). To the point of realizing this first part”Compatible with NFP», According to the president of the financial committee Eric Coquerel (LFI).
Read also
Budget 2025: Left-wing MPs approve super-dividend tax
But if the left is preparing to vote, this is not the case of the government camp (LR macroists), who are outraged by a “anything tax“. In theory, the troops of the Barnier coalition are more numerous than those of the New Popular Front, suggesting a rejection in the event of good mobilization in the hemicycle, where every deputy present will be able to vote for an absentee. And this, even if the National Rally decides at the last moment to abstain.
The Senate in the starting blocks
Not far from the Bourbon Palace, the Senate is eagerly waiting to take possession of the budget. It will do so on Wednesday, with the examination of this same “revenue” section in the Finance Committee.
Michel Barnier has a large majority in the upper house with almost 250 senators out of 348, of which around 130 are in the Les Républicains group, the prime minister’s family… And this is intended to have weight.
«We believe the Senate will have a different place in the debate. I believe we have a role to play, to demonstrate that bicameralism is more useful than we think», notes the general budget rapporteur Jean-François Husson (LR), who intends «put a frame back» in relation to the multiple measures voted in the Assembly. While promising to release “several billion in savings».
«In the Senate we are in a room where we settle, with a more consensual and negotiated dialogue», Appreciate a confident minister. The Chamber of Territories still risks giving the executive a hard time on the budget allocated to local authorities, amounting to at least five billion in the government project, and even much more according to the calculations of local elected representatives…
Interview between Time.news Editor and Budget Expert
Editor: Good morning, and welcome to Time.news. Today, we’re delving into the intricacies of the upcoming budget discussions in the Senate, particularly focusing on the 2025 state budget. With us is budget expert Dr. Clara Verne, who has been closely following these developments. Clara, thank you for joining us.
Clara Verne: Good morning! Thank you for having me.
Editor: Let’s dive right in. The National Assembly is set to hold a solemn vote on the first part of the 2025 state budget dedicated to revenue. However, it seems there are significant changes from what Michel Barnier initially presented. What are your thoughts on these alterations?
Clara Verne: Absolutely, it’s quite a dramatic shift. Barnier’s original proposal faced substantial pushback, particularly from the left. They’ve managed to advocate for billions in additional revenues and have successfully rejected several key measures. This indicates a strong resistance to the government’s plans and an effective mobilization of opposition forces.
Editor: The left has played a crucial role in these budget negotiations, which seems to hint at a fractured political landscape. Could you elaborate on the significance of this power struggle?
Clara Verne: Certainly. The dynamics in the National Assembly reveal deep ideological divides. The left’s ability to challenge Barnier’s proposals and advocate for their own revenue measures speaks to their strategic positioning. It suggests that they are not just a minority but rather an influential force in shaping fiscal policy, which could have long-term implications for the ruling coalition’s stability.
Editor: Michel Barnier’s coalition reportedly has a stronger representation in the Senate. How might this influence the budget’s fate when it is brought before them?
Clara Verne: The Senate’s larger coalition in favor of Barnier provides an edge. However, it also depends on the mobilization of his supporters during the vote. If they can effectively rally their members, potential rejection of the revenue proposals could be averted. But it will be a tightrope walk; any absence or lack of engagement could radically alter the outcome.
Editor: There’s mention of a term, “anything tax,” used by critics in the government camp. What exactly does this signify in the context of the broader budget discussions?
Clara Verne: The term “anything tax” suggests a frustration with how broadly the government is considering the revenue measures. Critics, particularly in Barnier’s camp, express concern that the proposals are haphazard and excessively burdensome. It reflects a growing sentiment that the government might be relying too heavily on taxes as a solution, rather than exploring more balanced fiscal strategies.
Editor: As we move toward the vote, what should citizens be mindful of? What does this budget potentially mean for the average taxpayer?
Clara Verne: The implications of this budget could be substantial for taxpayers. Depending on the final decisions regarding revenue measures, we might see adjustments in taxes that directly affect households, such as changes to dividend tax and even proposed surcharges. It’s a critical time for citizens to engage with their representatives and understand how these changes could affect their financial well-being.
Editor: if you had to predict the outcome of this fiscal battle, what would it be?
Clara Verne: It’s hard to say definitively due to the volatility in political alliances. Should Barnier’s coalition unify and mobilize effectively, there could be a chance of passing a revised version of the budget. However, if division and dissent continue to bubble under the surface, the left might find more opportunities to make their mark. It’s a fascinating but uncertain situation.
Editor: Clara, thank you for your insights on this complex topic. We’ll certainly be keeping a close eye on how these developments unfold.
Clara Verne: Thank you for having me. It’s been a pleasure sharing my thoughts!