[38개월만에 긴축 종료]
Most of the Monetary Policy Committee members said, “Let’s wait and see for three months.”
Lee “DSR regulations must be expanded in the mid to long term.”
“If you want to invest in a gap, consider financial costs.”
While the Bank of Korea lowered its base interest rate for the first time in three years and two months, it showed a cautious stance on further interest rate cuts within the year. It is reported that the majority of the Monetary Policy Committee members who decide on the base interest rate also expressed the opinion that they will maintain the current interest rate level for a while. It is interpreted that this interest rate cut is intended to ensure that it does not lead to an increase in house prices and household debt caused by ‘young people’ (people who invested with loans with their souls).
At the Bank of Korea’s monetary policy direction press conference on the 11th, Bank of Korea Governor Lee Chang-yong said, “The pace of future (interest rate) cuts will be decided carefully and balancedly while closely examining the trade-offs between policy variables such as prices, growth, and financial stability.” position was shown.
It is reported that the majority of the Monetary Policy Committee members also expressed the opinion that it is good to maintain the current interest rate level after three months. The intention is to observe the impact of the base interest rate cut on the market for three months and then adjust the speed of the rate cut in the future. Governor Lee said, “Out of the six members of the Monetary Policy Committee excluding me, five expressed the opinion that it is appropriate to maintain the interest rate at 3.25% even after three months,” and “the remaining member should leave open the possibility of lowering the interest rate to a level lower than 3.25%.” “I am of the opinion that we do,” he said.
Governor Lee emphasized that domestic conditions are significantly different from the situation in the United States, where the Federal Reserve (Fed) implemented a ‘big cut’ (0.5 percentage point interest rate reduction) last month. He said, “US inflation has risen by more than 10% and interest rates have also been raised by more than 500bp (5% points, 1bp = 0.01% point), so it is natural that (interest rates) are lowered quickly when inflation falls.” “You shouldn’t think, ‘It’s going to drop by percentage points’ or ‘There’s no problem with borrowing money,’” he explained.
Warnings to the Yeongkkeul tribe continued. On this day, Governor Lee said, “It is very unlikely that the interest rate level will go to the previous 0.5% level for a while, so if you want to invest in real estate, you should not think that the interest rate will be lowered and the costs will be small.” “It will have to be done while taking this into consideration,” he said. Previously, at the Monetary Policy Committee meeting in August this year, Governor Lee froze the benchmark interest rate for the longest period in history and warned against excessive borrowing to buy a house, saying, “We are making it clear that we will not operate monetary policies that encourage real estate price increases.” there is.
Governor Lee pointed out the need to expand government lending regulations to slow the growth of household loans. He said, “I think the total Debt Service Ratio (DSR) regulation should be expanded further in the mid- to long-term.” He added, “If additional DSR regulations are imposed, there will definitely be various inconveniences for actual consumers. “I think it is reasonable for the government to decide (whether to regulate further) based on the current situation such as household loans,” he said.
Due to the Bank of Korea’s cautious stance, the securities market predicts that additional interest rate cuts can only be expected in the first quarter of next year (January to March). Yeosam Yoon, a researcher at Meritz Securities, predicted, “It is likely that (interest rates) will be frozen in November and a cut will be considered in January next year.”
Reporter Cho Eung-hyung [email protected]
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