Implementation of the transport strategy until 2035 will require more than 60 trillion rubles. These figures are given in the baseline scenario of the project updated by the Ministry of Transport. In addition to it, there is also an aggressive scenario.
“Under the baseline scenario, the implementation of the objectives of the strategy will require a little less than 25 trillion rubles. budget funds and 38 trillion rubles. extrabudgetary funds “, – noted in the document (quote from TASS).
To achieve the objectives of the strategy in the baseline scenario, it is necessary to increase investment in transport from 2.3% of GDP on average for 2014–2019 to 3.1% of GDP. The document says that this is the minimum level of investment sufficient to ensure the planned development of a single backbone transport network and the implementation of national projects.
The aggressive scenario envisages an increase in investment up to 4% of GDP by 2025. It is noted that the optimistic scenario can be realized with “significant growth rates of investments in the supporting industries: construction, production of building materials, mechanical engineering, etc.”
It is assumed that by 2024 most of the investment will be in the railway industry.
The document also deals with the construction of federal roads by filling the road fund, the federal budget, as well as the budget of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation and local budgets. By 2025, the total volume of federal and regional road funds should increase to 2.3-2.5 trillion, and by 2030 – up to 2.8-3.0 trillion rubles.
The draft strategy contains “deeply predictive economic conditions for the development of the transport complex in Russia until 2030 and 2035 and a macroeconomic model of demand for freight and passenger transportation.” These models and key analytical blocks were developed with the participation of McKinsey and Bain.
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