2023-10-08 07:01:00
The saying that the third time is the charm seems to be coming true in the case of Carlos Fernando Galán. Today, as polls have confirmed for weeks, the New Liberalism candidate – who for the third time aspires to the Mayor of Bogotá – is the favorite to succeed Claudia López in the Liévano Palace.
However, with exactly 21 days until the regional elections, the former senator still does not have overwhelming majorities, so between political campaigns it is considered a fact that, with him on board, the second round will begin in Bogotá. That is, today the fight between the other 8 candidates is over who will occupy that coveted place in a head-to-head with Galán.
Former senator Gustavo Bolívar, of the Historical Pact, who has the blessing of President Gustavo Petro to fly his flags again in the city, sounds strongly in the party; Juan Daniel Oviedo, former director of Dane in the government of Iván Duque and former advisor to the former Uribe senator María del Rosario Guerra; the former senator from Cambio Radical, Rodrigo Lara, who, incidentally, was ignored in the New Liberalism and launched himself for signatures, or the also former senator Jorge Enrique Robledo, co-teacher of former governor Sergio Fajardo.
Also included in the bouquet – in which there was inexplicably no room for a woman – were Duque’s former Minister of Defense, Diego Molano; the former director of the Police, General Jorge Luis Vargas; and two unknown to public opinion, but who have been gaining recognition: lawyer Nicolás Ramos and engineer Rafael Alfonso Quintero.
Dirty and silver war
With the beginning of the period of electoral propaganda, the dissemination of surveys and the holding of debates, what has been experienced in recent weeks in the capital has been a fierce battle to gain support. The dispute has not been free of tricks and rivers of silver.
Only this weekend it was learned that, according to Semana, a document arrived at the Prosecutor’s Office denouncing that Bolívar’s campaign had sought to infiltrate Galán, Oviedo, Molano and Lara in search of information, to which is added a aggressive deployment of networks to attack them.
“It’s the dirtiest thing I’ve ever heard. I would never lend myself to that. If a campaign has been clean, it is mine. They can’t figure out how to make me muddy but they will never succeed. Dirty. Incapable. Mediocre,” Bolívar responded.
Previously, Galán warned that thieves entered his headquarters and stole the campaign manager’s computer. “This fact adds to the possible infiltrations and monitoring of different campaigns,” said the former councilor.
The complaints coincide not only with the marches at the end of September promoted by the Government itself, in which displays of support for Bolívar stood out, but with the so-called “taking of Bogotá” led by Petro, who in recent weeks turned to the capital to hold events in different locations. Even in the midst of this raid, controversial pieces were released from the Presidency networks in which it was said that “change is returning to Bogotá.”
For his part, the New Liberalism candidate – leveraged on what he called “the Galán Express” to bring together the traditional political class and other sectors – has been putting opinion figures such as Alejandro Gaviria, representative Katherine Miranda and the former minister Fernando Ruiz. Added to this are the machinery of the Council, both from the Liberal Party (today the former senator has the support of six of its seven lobbyists), and from the Green Alliance, whose councilors, without an heir imposed by Claudia López, were free to distribute support .
How these machines and forces operate from the Council will be decisive, taking into account that – according to the Electoral Observation Mission – there are 160 voting stations at risk due to atypical behavior and 182 threatened by electoral dominance.
“There are two Bogotás. One that covers the north – Chapinero, Usaquén, Suba or Teusaquillo – where the risk is due to electoral dominance and the competition is less transparent. The other is in the south –Ciudad Bolívar, San Cristóbal, Bosa, Usme or Kennedy–, where there is less participation and a lack of electoral pedagogy,” explained Aura Rodríguez, coordinator of the organization in the city.
Another determining factor, as in any election, will be the ticket. According to what the 9 candidates have reported, they have incurred expenses of $2,462 million. However, these are partial figures, as the records have not yet been completed.
The amounts will be higher: in the 2019 campaign alone Galán spent more than $3.55 billion, which accounts for the rivers of silver around an election in which, although the opinion vote prevails, checkbooks and the machinery. What will the second round bring?
How will the second round work?
Given the narrow margins that have been recorded in the mayoral election, in 2019 Congress approved that, as occurs in the presidential elections, there be a second round in Bogotá. This scenario will take place if none of the candidates obtains more than 40% of the votes and if there is no difference of more than 10 percentage points between the first and second most voted candidates.
In such a case, the second round would be held on November 19. But, there are complaints that the Electoral Council has not set a spending limit for that event.
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