► What is the situation in Somalia today?
One of the poorest countries in the world, Somalia elected a new president in May 2022: Hassan Cheikh Mohamoud, already in power between 2012 and 2017. To succeed in this second term, he first promised a “total war” to the shebabs, jihadists affiliated with Al-Qaeda.
The federal government has been facing heavy blows from the Islamists since 2006. The country’s security situation is extremely precarious: attacks are regular and cause dozens of deaths each year.
Added to this are the effects of climate change which is hitting eastern Africa hard. The region suffers the worst drought for forty years, with a fifth consecutive rainy season… without precipitation. Cattle are wiped out, crops decimated, imports, subject to inflation, unaffordable. Thus, 1.7 million people have left their homes in search of food, or 10% of the population.
► Why is Antonio Guterres going to Mogadishu?
This is the second time that the UN Secretary General has visited Somalia, after a first visit in March 2017. Like six years ago, this is for him to “sound the alarm” in the face of the risk of mass starvation which threatens the country. According to a study published in March by the Somali Ministry of Health, the World Health Organization and UNICEF, the drought could cause up to 135 deaths per day between January and June 2023.
In 2011, the famine that had already struck Somalia killed 260,000 people, more than half of whom were children under the age of 6, in part because the international community did not react quickly enough, according to the UN . Today 2.6 billion dollars are needed to mitigate the risk of famine. For now, this emergency plan is only 15% funded, said Antonio Guterres on April 11 during his visit to Mogadishu.
Beyond the lack of resources available, humanitarian aid is facing difficulties on the ground. The presence of the chebabs aggravates the crisis by preventing access to vulnerable regions, particularly in the center of the country.
► Is the government on the right track against the Islamists?
In the “total war” that he promised to the radical Islamists, an event served as a lever for President Hassan Cheikh Mohamoud: in the center of the country, we are witnessing an uprising against the chebabs launched by clan militias, the “Macawisley”. To support them, the government sent troops there in September. This offensive is a source of insecurity for civilians. The chebabs respond with deadly attacks, like last January 4 in Mahas, where 19 people died.
But the strike power of the government remains far superior to that of the jihadists. The coalition brings together the Somali army, special forces trained by Turkey, and around 20,000 soldiers from the African Union, all supported by Turkish and American drones.
The Mogadishu government says more than 3,000 Al-Shabaab fighters have been killed since the offensive began. According to the Ministry of Information, 70 towns and villages have recently been ” released “. However, independently verified information is trickling in. In Somalia, the press is forbidden to mention the chebabs.