2019 at the October 29 session, the <a href="http://www.time.news/2021-1-7-inflation-was-recorded-in-november-compared-to-1-3-inflation-in-the-same-month-last-year-cb-2024-07-28-110833/” title=”2021 1.7% inflation was recorded in November, compared to 1.3% inflation in the same month last year. CB:
– 2024-07-28 11:08:33″>Central Bank Board decided to leave the refinancing rate unchanged at 5.5%.
2019 Inflation was 0.2% in September, compared to 0.3% in the same period last year, as a result of which the 12-month inflation remained almost unchanged at the end of the month at 0.5%. Natural inflation continues to be higher than general inflation, making 1.1%.
In the external sector, the trends of slowing down the growth of the world economy are maintained, which are also reflected in the international commodity markets. In this case, the Central Banks of the main partner countries of RA continue the process of weakening monetary conditions. The Central Bank Council estimates that no inflationary pressures are expected from the external sector.
The council notes that in the third quarter, the economic activity of RA remained at the specified high level due to the increase in productivity. Domestic demand also remains strong during the quarter, driven by growth in private consumption, which continues to be supported by the accommodative monetary stance and the injection of large amounts of dram liquidity. At the same time, despite the small expansionary effect recorded in the third quarter, the impact of fiscal policy on aggregate demand since the beginning of the year is still estimated to be restraining.
Taking into account the developments in the external sector and the expected stimulative course of fiscal policy, as well as continuing to prefer a gradual recovery of inflation, the CB Board considers it appropriate to maintain the current level of monetary stimulus, leaving the refinancing rate unchanged. The Council also believes that in case of the forecasted macroeconomic developments, it will be necessary to maintain the stimulating position in the medium term in order to achieve the inflation goal. As a result, inflation is expected to remain below the target level in the coming months, gradually returning to the target in the medium term.
It should be noted that currently the risks of downward deviation from the predicted trajectory of inflation continue to dominate, mainly due to the developments of the outside world and the course of the fiscal policy, in case of which the Central Bank is ready to respond accordingly, ensuring the stability of prices in the medium term.
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