2023-10-21 11:44:23
If “the budgetary path” of the government “goes in the right direction”, “an additional effort would be necessary” to reach a public deficit of 2.7% in 2027, estimates Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas.
Skeptical, the chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, judged on Saturday “difficult to reach» the French government’s forecast of a budget deficit of 2.7% in 2027, warning however against too pronounced austerity. “The fiscal path that the government has planned is going in the right direction“, he explained on France Inter, but “we seem to be going a little too slowly» et «we could do a little more».
The 2024 budget, the first part of which was adopted in the National Assembly without a vote thanks to article 49.3 of the Constitution, must provide guarantees of budgetary seriousness. The text provides for total state spending of 491 billion euros, excluding debt charges, and a public deficit of 4.9% of GDP this year, then 4.4% in 2024, well off the charts. Europeans. The Ministry of the Economy is banking on economic growth of 1% this year, then 1.4% in 2024. It plans to reduce the public deficit to 2.7% in 2027. Debt would remain stable at 109.7 % of GDP in 2024, reaching 108.1% at the end of the five-year term.
«Under current policies“, the forecast of a budget deficit of 2.7% by 2027 “may be a little difficult to reach» et «therefore additional effort would be necessary», Estimated Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas. The forecast of 1.4% growth was also deemed “high» by the High Council of Public Finances. However, “it’s not really about making big cuts» in spending, explained the IMF economist, inviting “ask yourself a question» additional spending and reforms. The reforms undertaken by the governmentwill bear fruit“, in particular by supporting employment and activity, but “unfortunately we will have to do a little more», Judged Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas.
Read alsoThe High Council of Public Finance considers the government’s growth forecasts too optimistic
The debt exceeded 3,000 billion euros in the first quarter of 2023 and France plans to borrow a record amount of 285 billion euros on the markets in 2024. In the evening on Friday, the rating agency Moody’s indicated not not having updated France’s note, which therefore remains at “Aa2“, one of the best possible, a decision which “demonstrates the credibility» of the country, according to the Minister of the Economy Bruno Le Maire.
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