2024-01-14 02:21:46
The author is a researcher of China in the Asian studies program at Bar-Ilan University
China is known for its political ability to hold the rope at both ends. The Russia-Ukraine war is a clear example of how China maintains its economic and political interests, being the biggest beneficiary of the sanctions imposed by the West on Russia, along with the condemnations of Russian aggression and even taking financial sanctions against it. Although it took some time for China to join the official condemnation of the United Nations against Russia and subsequently to the decision to impose limited sanctions, the Chinese have patience. They are carefully examining the map of interests, the expected loss and gain from taking a position and the wind blowing from the US, the European Union and its allies. Among other things, in the Middle East.
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Therefore, it is still too early to draw conclusions about China’s position towards the current crisis in the Middle East. We may see a change in the coming months, both at the declarative level and at the practical level. At this stage it is noticeable that at the declarative level, there is a change from the ambiguity that China used in the past towards the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. As soon as the war broke out, China called for restraint and an end to the violence of both sides, but without condemning the massacre of 7.10 by Hamas. After that, Beijing’s criticism of Israel increased. In his speech at the opening of the BRICS summit last November, Chinese President Xi Jinping called for “an end to the collective punishment against the Palestinians” on the part of Israel and an immediate ceasefire. The Chinese media, which is entirely controlled by the government, echoes this position in its one-sided and anti-Israeli coverage of the war from its very beginning.
Antisemitic expressions and conspiracies about Jewish control
The unusually powerful expressions of anti-Semitism on social media in China are another expression of Beijing’s position. These expressions are also a response to the media coverage, but in China this equation of the influence of the media on public opinion never holds if the government is not interested in it. That is, the public discourse against Israel is not a new matter that comes as a response to wars or operations in the region (although the engagement with Israel is relatively marginal on social networks). On the other hand, anti-Semitic expressions against Jews, conspiracies about global Jewish control (with a focus on American politics and economics) and even the use of Nazi rhetoric are definitely a sign that the government wants to enable public support for its unilateral position in the current war. The target audience of the Chinese government is the Chinese public and its dominant economic partners. The Israeli public is placed low on the food chain in terms of Chinese interests, far behind the Russian or Egyptian public for that matter.
The declarative aspect is one side of the stick, a side that China has learned to play well in the international arena while understanding the rules of the game, according to which one can say one thing and do something else on the ground, as in the case of the Russia-Ukraine war. From a geopolitical point of view, China tries not to lean too much on the axis of Russia, Iran and North Korea, which supply weapons to Hamas and, of course, full funding to Hezbollah in the case of Iran. This axis may pose problems with other countries in the Middle East, such as Saudi Arabia and the Emirates, which are affected by the Houthi threat to maritime trade. However, China is not interested in showing support for the American position and the British and French involvement in promoting a political settlement between Israel and Hezbollah, while providing military and economic support to Israel. This delicate game requires diplomatic virtuosity on China’s part. That is, official pro-Palestinian statements while keeping a distance from mediation or active involvement in the situation.
Ambiguity was adopted regarding the Houthi threat until it reached Sipa
The economic aspect is the other side of the stick. China maintains its interests and business activities with all parties, including Israel, Iran, Lebanon, Egypt and, as recently published, also with Hamas. During the fighting in Gaza, the IDF revealed the use of Chinese-made weapons by Hamas, including cartridges, shooting sights, grenade launchers, advanced audio devices, and more. These are new findings, but not necessarily surprising. The finger of blame is of course pointed at Iran, which may be working behind China’s back. Such a scenario would allow Israel to maintain diplomatic and economic relations with China, while clarifying the issue through secret channels between the countries. Israel has no interest in worsening the economic situation during the fighting, and apparently the ability to influence China in its trade channel with Iran is limited in any case.
The Houthi threat is another economic issue that affects Chinese economic interests, and shows the complexity of Chinese involvement. China has avoided taking a clear position regarding the maritime threat until recently. This ambiguity served China as both the Houthis and the Saudis made use of Chinese military and defense equipment directed at each other. China’s decision to stop the arrival of the giant shipping company Cuzco to Israel indicates a change in the Chinese attitude towards the Houthi threat, which until now was perceived by China as a specific threat against Israeli ships only.
Besides the economic consequences for maritime trade, there are also consequences for foreign policy and China’s position. Acknowledging a potential threat to Chinese ships to the point of cutting off the trade line in question could push China into a more involved position in a war of iron swords. This is to preserve its image as a strong power capable of protecting its interests in the Middle East.
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