2024-08-04 22:41:28
The risk of destabilizing the Earth system from current climate policies can be minimized if global warming is quickly reversed, according to a new study.
Risk of destabilization of the Earth system
he climate change human-caused destabilization of large-scale components of the Earth system, such as ice sheets, sea circulation or components of the global biospherethe calls elements turning.
In a new study published in Nature Communication (1), researchers the IIASA (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis) and of Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) the risks associated with four main interconnected elements of climate disruption due to current mitigation levels and future emission scenarios have been analysed.
The four basic elements of climate contribute to regulating the stability of the Earth’s climate system
The authors determined the risks of destabilizing at least one the four basic elements of climate resulting in overheating of 1.5 °C: the Greenland Ice Sheetthe West Antarctic Ice Sheetthe Atlantic meridional circulation (the main system of ocean currents in the Atlantic Ocean) and the Amazon jungle. All four help regulate the stability of the Earth’s climate system. Global warming can trigger sudden changes in these biophysical systems, leading to irreversible consequences.
The authors’ analysis shows what it is How critical it is for the state of the planet to adhere to the climate goals of the Paris Agreement and highlights the legacy of our current lack of climate action for centuries and millennia to come.
Greenhouse effect gases
“Our results show that for effectively limiting the risks of extinction in the coming centuries and beyondwe must achieve and maintain net emissions from the beginning. “If we follow current policies this century, we would be committed to eliminating a high risk of 45% by 2300, even if temperatures return to below 1.5 °C after a period of excess,” the company said in a statement. author Tessa Moller, researcher in the Integrated Climate Impact Research Group of the Energy, Climate and Environment Program of IIASA and PIK.
The authors found that rollover risks by 2300 are substantial for several of the future emission scenarios evaluated. Failure to return below 1.5°C by 2100despite achieving net-zero greenhouse gas emissions, typical risks will be up to 24% by 2300, meaning in a quarter of the models run scenarios where temperatures fail to return below 1.5 °C by 2100 , at least one of the fiducial elements is considered to be inverted.
“We see an increase in tipping risk with every tenth of overheating above 1.5°C. If global warming is also exceeded by 2°C, disposal risks would increase even more rapidly. This is a cause for great concern, as scenarios following currently implemented climate policies are expected to result in global warming of around 2.6°C by the end of this century,” says Annika Ernest Högner from PIK, who was led the study.
“Only a rapid reversal of warming after overheating can effectively limit the tipping risks. This requires achieving at least net zero greenhouse gas emissions. Our study shows that this global mitigation target, enshrined in Article 4 of the Paris Agreement, is critical to planetary stability,” says IIASA Integrated Climate Impact Research Group leader Carl Schleussner, one of the study’s authors.
We are undertaking an assessment of the risks
According to the researchers, The advanced models currently used to study Earth’s systems are still unable to fully capture the complex behaviours, the feedback loops and the interactions between some of the tipping elements. To address this, the team used a simpler and more stylized Earth system model that represents these tipping elements using four linked mathematical equations. In doing so, they also took into account future stabilizing interactions, such as the cooling effect of the weakening Atlantic Ocean Circulation in the northern hemisphere.
“This analysis of the risks associated with the tipping point reinforces the conclusion that the risks are being underestimated and that we are now We must recognize that the purpose of the Paris Agreement is to be legally binding to keep global warming well below 2°C it means limiting it to 1.5°C. As sufficient reductions in emissions have not been achieved, we are at increasing risk of exceeding this temperature limit for a period which we must minimize at all costs. to reduce serious impacts for people around the world” Finishes director of the PIK and co-author of the study, Johan Rockström.
- (1) Achieving net zero greenhouse gas emissions is urgently needed to limit the risks of climate change. Nature Communication.
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