Title: Turkish Strongman Erdogan’s Bartering Tactics Delay Sweden’s NATO Membership
Subtitle: NATO’s swing state, Turkey, utilizes obstructionism and demands concessions to further its own agenda.
In a surprising move that has left analysts puzzled, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has once again delayed Sweden’s accession to NATO, defying earlier promises made during NATO’s annual summit in July. Erdogan’s reluctance to lift Ankara’s block on Sweden’s membership has not only frustrated NATO allies but has also emboldened another problematic member, Hungary, to threaten to impede Sweden’s entry.
Erdogan, known for his transactional approach to international politics, is seeking a significant concession before allowing Sweden to join NATO. He hopes to finalize a deal worth $20 billion to acquire U.S.-made F-16 fighters, along with modernization kits for their existing fleet. Although President Biden has supported the sale, he has made it clear to Erdogan that it would require approval from the U.S. Congress. However, Congress members, well-aware of Erdogan’s tactics, insist that Turkey lifts its hold on Sweden’s NATO membership beforehand due to Turkey’s increasing authoritarianism and disregard for democratic norms.
This standoff has inadvertently favored Russian President Vladimir Putin, with whom Erdogan claims to share a “special relationship.” It is important for Erdogan to reassess his loyalties and determine whether it is in Turkey’s best interest to align with its NATO allies, whose combined economic output significantly surpasses Russia’s, or with the Kremlin, which struggles to withstand Western sanctions.
Sweden’s entry into NATO would considerably strengthen the Western alliance. However, Erdogan’s objections and demands have forced Stockholm to address Turkey’s concerns regarding the Kurdish population in Sweden. Sweden has extradited several Kurds as requested by Turkey and has modified its laws and constitution to enable stricter actions against alleged terrorists. Additionally, it has lifted the arms embargo on Turkey and increased military spending to meet NATO’s defense spending target.
Erdogan risks overplaying his hand by demanding progress towards Turkish EU membership and pressuring Stockholm to legislate a formal ban on burning the Quran. These requests are met with resistance, as they clash with Sweden’s principles of freedom of expression and are unlikely to be accepted.
The best solution for Erdogan and NATO is to move forward with the proposed F-16 package once Turkey ratifies Sweden’s NATO membership, as indicated by President Biden and key members of Congress. By doing so, Erdogan can demonstrate his commitment to the Western alliance and prioritize the prosperity and security of both Turkey and NATO.
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