The Concept of Iran’s Proxies: Strengths and Weaknesses in the Middle East

2024-02-03 12:14:41

The concept of the “envoys” that was trusted by Qassem Soleimani, commander of the Quds Force until his elimination in 2020, was a “magic solution” in the Iranian view of its problems and security challenges in the Middle East. Without any danger that would threaten its borders, Iran managed to fulfill many interests (deterring Israel, saving Assad, strengthening its foothold in Yemen, Iraq and Lebanon, etc.), without using its forces directly. This fact has served Iran well, which traditionally fears a direct threat to its borders, and especially fears a direct confrontation with the US, and is generally very cautious in the exercise of its power.

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However, a series of events since the beginning of the “Iron Swords” system undermines the effectiveness of the concept of couriers, and casts great doubt on Iran’s ability to use this concept to strengthen its security and military position in the region. Thus, the fact that Iran avoids using direct force against Israel or the US does reduce the likelihood of a direct confrontation between Iran and them, but it also reduces Iran’s ability to control the pace of developments and various events.

Demonstrations against Israel in Iran (Photo: Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via REUTERS)

Despite Iran’s good relations with its emissaries and the broad assistance it provides them, the latest reports show that Iran is having great difficulty influencing the exercise of power by those organizations, especially when it comes to the Houthis and the Shiite militias in Iraq in their activities against the presence of the United States in the Middle East.

Missile attack on the Iranian port of Chabahar (Photo: Arab Networks)

The fact that there is an erosion of the distinction between Iran and its proxies, in light of the understanding that Iran continues to assist them militarily, security and intelligence, greatly endangers Tehran since the intensification of the conflict between Iran’s proxies and the United States also necessarily increases the danger of direct confrontation between Washington and Tehran. Although both sides do not want a direct battle, they will find it difficult to avoid it for long because of the perception in the US of Iranian responsibility for the use of force by the proxies.

Moreover, the fact that Iran fails to impose a cease-fire on Israel despite all its efforts and especially the Iranian failure to respond significantly to the assassinations of its own people in Syria as a result of what Tehran perceives as Israel’s activity against it, shows the Iranian “glass ceiling” in the ability to fulfill Iran’s interests without direct involvement its.

Demonstrations in Iran against Israel (Photo: Reuters)

In light of this and on the precipice of the times, according to the various reports, Iran is forced to evacuate some of its officers in Syria and increase the pressure on its proxy, in order to avoid a serious escalation that could lead it to an unwanted confrontation with Israel and the USA. At the same time, Iran is using the latest missile fire into Syria, Iraq and Pakistan as a tool Its own military power (and not the proxy), but it is doubtful whether even Iran’s “showcase” profoundly changes its ability to influence events in the Middle East without direct military involvement.

Without a willingness to directly deploy force, Iran finds its ability to realize its security goals in the Middle East is severely limited. Moreover, Iran may find itself directly involved with Israel and the US “thanks” to the proxy’s push for such a conflict, against the background of their independence in the decision-making process, which was significantly strengthened after the assassination of Soleimani. The more Tehran pays for using its proxy, the more it will be undermined The belief among its leadership as to the ability to maintain this concept, without paying a price to Iran itself.

Danny (Dennis) Sitrinowitz is an associate researcher in the Iran program at the Institute for National Security Studies, and has served for 25 years in a variety of command positions in the leading collection and research units in the IDF and in the IDF delegations at the Israeli Embassy in Washington.