The condition for the growth of daily coronavirus diseases in China to hundreds of thousands is named

by time news

Scientists urge Beijing not to abandon COVID zero strategy

According to a study by mathematicians from Peking University, China could face more than 630,000 coronavirus infections a day if it abandons its “zero COVID” policy by lifting travel restrictions.

In a report published in the China Center for Disease Control and Prevention Weekly, four mathematicians argue that China cannot afford to lift travel restrictions without more effective vaccinations or specific treatments.

Using August data from the United States, Britain, Spain, France and Israel, Chinese mathematicians estimated the possible outcomes if the PRC adopted the same pandemic control tactics as those countries, Reuters reports.

Most of the countries listed in the study had higher natural immunity rates and vaccination rates than China, where only 54 percent of the population had been vaccinated as of August.

The scientists ‘report says that the daily number of new cases in China will reach at least 637,155 if it adopts the United States’ pandemic strategy. And if Beijing applied the same approach to COVID as the UK, then in the Middle Kingdom, daily cases of the disease would reach over 275 thousand. The French route would mean for China more than 454 thousand cases of coronavirus infection per day.

“These assessments have highlighted the real possibility of a colossal outbreak that will almost certainly put an overwhelming burden on the medical system,” the report says. “Our results serve as a clear warning that we are not ready at this time to adopt ‘open access’ strategies based solely on the vaccine-induced herd immunity hypothesis promoted by some Western countries.”

Mathematicians warned that their estimates are based on basic arithmetic and that more sophisticated models are needed to study the evolution of the pandemic if travel restrictions are lifted.

The researchers said China needs to have a variety of drugs at its disposal before it abandons its COVID policy, including varying levels of non-pharmaceutical interventions and a large number of hospital beds.

China has a zero-tolerance policy for COVID-19, saying the importance of containing local cases when they are detected outweighs the disruptions caused by efforts to track, isolate and treat those infected.

China’s zero-tolerance approach to COVID includes closing borders and blocking any local areas where cases are reported to prevent the spread of infection, Newsweek recalls. Some critics argued that China’s COVID strategy is harming the country’s economy and called on the authorities to take a different approach based on assessing post-vaccination antibody levels and the duration of immunity following booster shots.

China’s “zero COVID” strategy also includes mandatory coronavirus tests to detect new cases every time a positive case is found in a new part of the country, and long quarantine periods that vary by city and province, but are at least 21 days, according to information from South China Morning Post.

China reported 23 new confirmed cases of coronavirus on November 27, up from 25 cases the day before, health authorities said Sunday.

Meanwhile, the World Health Organization (WHO) on Friday identified a new variant of COVID-19, found in South Africa with a large number of mutations, as “of concern.”

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