2023-09-30 09:00:45
The bloody battle between the Kosovo police and an armed group in the north of Kosovowhich on Sunday the 24th turned a small town in this territory almost into a zone of guerrafanned the ghost of the ethnic violence and resulted in at least four fatalities, has generated this week so much great alarm due to the eventuality of the reactivation of another armed conflict at the gates of Europe, as a new turn in geopolitics in the region, on the part of the European Union (EU) and USA. This has been highlighted by Serbian and Kosovar observers consulted by EL PERIÓDICO and various analyzes published in international institutes.
One of the loudest responses has been that of the I’ll take itwhich maintains the Kfor mission in Kosovo and on Friday authorized the deployment of more troops in this territory. The organization announced its decision after countries such as Italy, which has a historical presence in the region, said they were available for this measure. On an even more alarming note, the White House denounced “a large Serbian military deployment along the border with Kosovo”, which he considered “a very destabilizing development”.
Some words of concern similar to those of Jeffrey Hovenier, US ambassador to Pristina, which still He stated, in an interview with an international media outlet, that it has yet to be determined whether, as Pristina claims and Belgrade denies, Serbia is behind the Armed group who confronted the Kosovo police. In a similar tone, the UE condemned the shooting which led to the death of the Kosovo police officer and then triggered a second shooting in a nearby Orthodox monastery, but also called for “calm and stability to be restored.” Something that some in Pristina considered too lukewarm a reaction.
Undisciplined paramilitaries
One of the reasons is, although Pristina has said that the attackers belonged to a pro-Serb paramilitary group linked to Belgrade and three men were detained by Kosovo authorities for participating in the confrontation, no one has yet claimed anything or explained why the attack occurred. Furthermore, according to Reuters, Kosovo police also prevented access to Spathe Serbian-majority town where the events took place, told journalists on the scene for three days (until Wednesday).
According to Serbian analyst Dusan Janjic, “the reality is that, for years, there have been various paramilitary groups well trained but not disciplined, and with notorious ties to the organized crime”. “The problem is that the (Kosovar Serb) population does not support them, but is afraid. In this chaos reign characters like Milan Radojcic (vice president of the Serbian List who appeared in images released by the Kosovo Government as one of the assailants),” adds this expert in ethnic conflict management.
“So yes, it is a worrying situation, and I expect another similar episode soon, although limited to the action of small groups,” says Janjic, while also not excluding that sectors of the Serbian stateo Moscow, are involved. An opinion that is similar to that of Agon Maliqi, analyst and founder of Sbunker, a page in the Albanian language that brings together ideas and opinions of young academics. “It is not clear which particular group committed the attack. But Radojcic’s presence confirms that it is a group with links to Belgrade,” he maintains.
Cards dismantled
The matter could be even more tangled, as researcher Dimitar Bechev pointed out these days, in the pages of the American Carnegie Institute. “There is another theory circulating in Belgrade. It is that it indicates that the Serbian leaders of Kosovo are eager to emancipate themselves from the firm embrace of (the Serbian president, Aleksandar) Vučić”Bechev wrote. “If it is confirmed that Radojcic is working on his behalf, it would appear that Vučić has lost control of his former intermediaries,” Bechev added.
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A reasoning that is based on the fact that, in recent months, both the EU and the US had repeatedly censured the Kosovo prime minister, Albin Kurti, due to the lack of progress in the negotiation to normalize the relationship with Serbia. “Yes, Belgrade received some support, also because of the need to distance Serbia from Russia”says Petrit Selimi, former Foreign Minister of Kosovo. “But let’s hope that this violent episode generates more symmetrical pressure on both sides and an understanding that Vučić is a threat that must be managed,” he adds, in an interview.
The situation may also represent a new, very negative turning point. “After this attack, Kurti and Vučić will entrench their positions on the Association of Serbian Municipalities (which would give some autonomy to northern Kosovo, something Pristina resists),” according to researchers Majda Ruge and Engjellushe Morinaof the think tank pan-europeo European Council on Foreign Relations (Ecfr). Therefore, “for the US and the EU, the choice is no longer limited solely between the failure and success of the dialogue (between Serbia and Kosovo), but between stability and a further escalation of the violence“, they added.
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