It was hard not to see the pain in Naftali Bennett’s eyes when he announced that he would not run in the 25th Knesset elections. After changing the rhetoric from a right-wing leader to one that is more in line with the Balfour protest spirit, his men in the bureau and list showed him the door. It was not by chance that Nitzan Horowitz was the first to rush to greet him that evening.
Without a stable base in the polls and especially with center-right voters, Bennett preferred to cut losses and make it home. Meanwhile. And the word meanwhile in this context is significant. Similar to Ben-Gurion’s mythological retirement, Bennett leaves the political game mainly to produce longing and probably to return at a different time. In the meantime, he transferred the reins to Yair Lapid.
Although he entered a bureau in a transitional government, Lapid is expected to receive a much freer hand than Bennett received in his tenure. Senior government officials outline Lapid’s tenure within a square whose vertices are: political, economic, security and legal. In the political arena, Lapid receives a free front to lead, similar to Netanyahu with the agreements between Avraham in the previous transitional government or Ehud Barak in his meetings with Arafat as the transitional prime minister. Lapid, it will be recalled, holds two positions as both prime minister and foreign minister and will be able to lead moves that are independent of his political partners or rivals and record achievements in his name during the campaign. Lapid feels comfortable on this front so the first move his bureau announced even before he swapped with Bennett is a visit to Paris next week. Another opportunity will come his way in less than two weeks when he welcomes US President Joe Biden to Israel.
On the security front, however, Lapid is expected to be stuck like Bennett. Defense Minister Ganz, who was opposed to Levant and made it difficult for him in meetings with senior military officials, is expected to make life much harder for former partner Lapid. In the coming weeks, will the champions attend the discussions that Lapid will convene? Senior government officials claim that Bennett will instruct Lapid on how to act in expected cases.
On the legal front, Lapid could not have been more comfortable. Rabbi Miara rarely attends government meetings and sends her deputies to the weekly meeting with politicians. Therefore, it is estimated that even on this front, Lapid will be able to operate freely, with the only one who can challenge it being Justice Minister Gideon Saar.
At the economic peak, Lapid finds Lieberman in the most difficult period: price increases and a boiling housing market when any move by the two may be perceived as an “election economy.” Lieberman is trying to maintain the image of the responsible adult in the Ministry of Finance and will be required to act between two extremes: one is the budget department and at the other end there will be a torch that will seek to clear economic mines from the campaign.
The Explosive Barrel: The Economic Crisis
This is an explosive barrel for the government. Netanyahu began his election campaign a few hours after the vote to dissolve the Knesset in the Malcha mall, lamenting the price increases. If Lapid tries to respond with actions in the face of any such move by Netanyahu, it will be a matter of time before he clashes with Lieberman, who is strengthening the image of the economic gatekeeper in these elections.
And from Lieberman to Prime Minister Lapid: Naama Schultz. After 15 years in various positions in the public sector.In the past year he has been the one who has led the issue of lowering tariffs in the Prime Minister’s Office and reducing regulation as well as negotiations with farmers in recent weeks.
At the farewell ceremony, the spokeswoman for the Prime Minister’s Office, Shlomit Barnea Fargo, described him as one who works “without ego and without power.” Schultz is expected to bring a different approach to the Prime Minister’s Office. In the past year, she has acted as the “problem solver” of the coalition on behalf of Lapid. And on the condition that they stop shaking the deck. Schultz will no longer be able to hold this position. It will be required to hold professional discussions, otherwise the professionals in the Prime Minister’s Office will act to neutralize it and make it difficult for it to act.
The number one mine for Lapid and Lieberman awaits them on September 1. If the teachers do not sign a new wage agreement, Yaffa Ben-David threatens to suspend the opening of the school year and not only that. Senior Histadrut officials whispered this week to budget officials that they would not abandon Ben-David alone and at the start of the school year they would shut down the economy if their demands were not met. After in the last few years the school year has opened as a series it will be a failure that neither Lapid nor Lieberman will want to carry on their backs on the way to the ballot box. It will be in the interest of both of them to end this crisis in the summer months.
Ayelet Shaked’s next decision
When Bennett informed his longtime partner Shaked this week that he was leaving political life, at least for now, she was still trying to ask him to stay. She assumed that leaving the campaign from the Prime Minister’s Office would give the right an advantage. But Bennett decided to retire from political life, at least for the time being.
Shaked had already paved the way for her people, even before she hired a political consultant for the “I do not belong to any of the blocs” campaign, she instructed. “I do not rule out anyone between Ben Gvir and Ra’am. I will stay in the middle and decide the next election campaign. “Shaked’s work plan includes an economic platform similar to the plan of the last election campaign. One of them is former Minister of Religions Matan Kahana who does not seem particularly enthusiastic about serving under Shaked when his political patron leaves the ship.
The connections of the right in the coalition
While in the right-wing camp in the opposition there is relative stability in terms of the contending parties: Likud, religious Zionism, Shas and Torah Judaism. Dramatic changes are expected in the right-wing coalition wing. This time she does not rule out connections with the Jewish home, new hope or Derech Eretz by Zvi Hauser and Yoaz Handel.
Saar’s party said on Wednesday that they intend to run in the same format in the election. While Derech Eretz sounded more reluctant about continuing to cooperate, they were also adamant about the message: “a significant state right.” That is, no more party fragments with semantic differences, but they intend to run in one party that can rake in the votes of the right that are not Netanyahu-Smutrich voters. If Shaked wants to join the package, she will have to officially enlist in the “No Bibi” camp. time will tell.
Shaked worked hard on the way to the hearts of the mayors, most of them Likud members. She gave them budgets and treatment they did not receive during Deri’s tenure before her. She, unlike Bennett, can also act in front of the settlement leaders despite the partnership with RAAM, and now she hopes that the compliments that have been poured on her during her short tenure will be translated into mandates. The right has not yet begun cannibalism, the center-left wing is not wasting time.
Michaeli leads cannibalism on the left
Labor Party Chairman Merav Michaeli fired the opening shot at the ADF. With the signal given for another election campaign, she marked the transition prime minister Yair Lapid as her most dominant opponent. “We are at a critical moment for the future of the State of Israel,” she tweeted. “If the Metro law does not pass because some of my coalition members succumb to the opposition on the backs of the public, they will have to give an account of why the national project that will get us out of the traffic jam has been stopped because of petty politics.” Michaeli wrote in a not very sophisticated hint about the people of Yesh Atid who conducted the contacts on behalf of the coalition. She later responded to Lapid, who wrote that he was working on passing the Metro law: “Better late than never.”
Bad Futures held back, and beyond slander in internal conversations, refrained from responding to the Minister of Transportation in the same currency. The overcrowding in the center-left camp should cause Lapid to overcome his instinct, certainly as prime minister, to drink the seats from the parties around him to ensure a chance for the government he heads even after the election. In practice, this is a work of thought that will bring down victims and may even end in the traditional call for unification between Meretz and Labor, which are competing for the same limited share of voters on the left.
In March, they join in advance the same calls that Michaeli vehemently rejects. To stay on the field, she met this week with former chief of staff Gabi Eisenkot who only met last week with whoever is designing the list for blue and white chairman Benny Ganz: Minister Hili Trooper. But with one hand Michaeli is apparently winking at the prominent generals and with the other hand blocking their possibility of facing her or God forbid defeating her in the primaries for the leadership of the movement.
The Labor Conference on Thursday approved an extensive constitutional change initiated by Michaeli’s people in the party’s bylaws and is intended to tighten its grip on the apparatus. Michaeli changed the bylaws so that it would not be possible to shorten the PSM that would allow a non-member of the movement to run for office without the required training period. Another story. Party secretary Eran Hermoni said this week that “this is an anti-democratic election policy for the party leadership, which blocks the possibility of new candidates with public status entering the race.”
Past and present party members also criticized Michaeli’s changes and claimed she was interested in the party “in its image and likeness.” Another incumbent MK actually supported and said that perhaps this time the Labor Party will give another opportunity to its leader instead of adhering to the custom of beheading and self-destruction of the Labor Party in recent decades. Considering their entry into the field, they are fighting for a change in the bylaws.