Imprisoned Russian opposition leader Alexey Navalny has been handed a 19-year sentence in a penal colony and immediately sent to a punishment cell, following a court ruling. The punishment stands in stark contrast to the fate of Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of Russian mercenary group Wagner. Prigozhin led an abortive mutiny in June that posed a significant challenge to President Vladimir Putin. However, he has not faced any consequences for his actions. Prigozhin even made a public appearance recently during the Russia-Africa summit in St. Petersburg, shaking hands with a dignitary from the Central African Republic (CAR).
The Russian ambassador to the UK, Andrei Kelin, struggled to explain why Prigozhin, who attempted to stage a coup against the Kremlin, remains free while others such as Navalny are in jail for dissenting against the government. Kelin initially claimed that he did not recall any Russian soldiers dying during the Wagner mutiny, but later conceded that he did not have an explanation. Experts believe that Prigozhin still holds value to Putin due to his business acumen and his ability to conceal commercial gains through a network of front companies and offshore operations. This is particularly important for Putin’s Russia as it has been hit by sweeping Western economic sanctions.
Prigozhin’s future is uncertain, and there are concerns about his plans moving forward. Some Wagner fighters have relocated to Belarus, leading to fears that they may destabilize the border between Poland and Belarus. Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki has expressed concern that Wagner troops may pose as migrants to cross the border. Furthermore, Prigozhin has hinted at future operations in Africa, where Wagner has already been involved in conflicts in Sudan, the CAR, and Libya. He may also see opportunities in Niger, following a recent military coup that threatened to create regional instability.
Despite defying Putin and avoiding punishment, Prigozhin’s actions have weakened the Kremlin’s power vertical, the top-down rule system implemented by Putin. Experts believe that a post-Putin Russia is already unfolding, and Prigozhin’s actions suggest that various players are preparing to battle for power in the country.