2023-04-21 13:42:04
France has not finished suffering the consequences of the rise in energy prices. According to a study by the Fabrique de l’industrie, this increase alone could threaten up to 117,000 industrial jobs in France, or nearly 5% of the total, for the perimeter studied. A tone that contrasts with the current rather optimistic official discourse on reindustrialization.
La Fabrique assumes a sustainable doubling of gas and electricity prices in Europe, compared to the average of the ten years before the health crisis, while they would remain stable elsewhere.
“Each company will have to pass on part of the increase in its energy bill to its margins, to the detriment of its profit, and another part to its customers (via its selling prices), to the detriment of its price competitiveness. “, underline the authors of the study. The sectors most concerned would be chemicals, metallurgy, paper and cardboard or the manufacture of non-metallic mineral products.
The perverse effects of the carbon tax
But rising energy costs are not the only threat weighing on French industry, even if it is the heaviest in terms of jobs. The study points to two others: the establishment of a carbon tax at the borders (MACF) and the American plan in favor of industry (IRA), voted in the summer of 2022, which promises both subsidies and protectionist measures.
« The MACF is first and foremost a tool at the service of a climate ambition, and secondarily of a nature to preserve the competitiveness of European companies. However, it has shortcomings and blind spots that can be seen as relocation bonuses. », judge Vincent Charlet, general delegate of the Fabrique de l’industrie and one of the writers of the study.
In its first phase of application scheduled for 2026, the carbon tax will only cover a few major industrial inputs (steel, aluminum, cement, fertilizers, electricity and hydrogen) and not all of the value chains. If foreign aluminum produced outside the EU will be taxed at the border, a finished or semi-finished product made from aluminum and transformed outside the EU will escape the MACF, recalls the study. As a result, the European importer will therefore not have to pay the cost of carbon, which may encourage him to opt for this solution rather than turning to European manufacturing.
The implementation of the system also introduces the gradual end of the free carbon quotas enjoyed by European manufacturers, which should weigh on the competitiveness of their exports. In total, the MACF could cost up to 37,500 jobs to French industry, the study estimates. Chemicals and metallurgy would still be among the most impacted.
The American plan, revealing the loss of European competitiveness
La Fabrique de l’industrie, on the other hand, is much less pessimistic about the negative effects for Europe of the American IRA. In reverse, therefore, the worried declarations of the leaders of the European Union, who are alarmed by the distortions of competition and have just adopted their own plan. “ The IRA poses a longer term threat and there are no job volumes that could be affected in Europe immediately “, believes Vincent Charlet.
For the general delegate of the Fabrique de l’industrie, the purpose of the study is above all to alert on the priorities for successfully reducing the carbon footprint of the European economy and strengthening its sovereignty. industrial.
« The American plan only reveals our loss of competitiveness.This is a cruel example of effective acting out “, believes Vincent Charlet. It remains for the Europeans to find answers to ensure that their industry is preserved.
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