2023-05-21 22:21:07
Joe Biden has had to return from his three-day express trip to Japan, where he has participated in the G7 summit in Hiroshima and has evidenced the increasingly active role of the West in the war in Ukraine. The President of the United States had planned to travel later to Australia, a member country of the Aukus military alliance, with which he recently signed an agreement for the supply of nuclear submarines. And then, he had Papua New Guinea on the diplomatic agenda, a historic trip, since no US president has ever gone.
However, Biden decided to cancel those two trips to return home and continue with the negotiations on the debt ceiling, a pressing problem, now that there is a week and a half left before the country is at risk of suspension of payments, as alerted Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. In this way, the president returns after the closing of the summit “for meetings with the leaders of Congress that guarantee that it takes measures within the term to avoid non-payments,” according to the White House press secretary, Karine Jean-Pierre. .
It is a clear message to the Americans, and also to the world: the domestic economic problem that the country is going through is more pressing than diplomacy in a region of the first order for their interests. And it is not for less: for the first time in the history of the United States, the Government could fall into default if an agreement is not reached between the parties.
At the moment, both Biden and the leader of the House of Representatives, Republican Kevin McCarthy, blame each other and label each other as inflexible. None seems willing to give in, since that would mean more than twisting the arm: it is an ideological defeat. Republicans who, while in power, have increased debt by cutting taxes, are calling on Biden to cut entitlement spending. For his part, the president asks Congress to approve an increase in the debt limit, something that has happened up to 78 times in the country’s history, in order to carry out his program.
Is the US a reliable partner?
Be that as it may, the analysis being made within the country is that domestic problems are weakening the US diplomatic position. The message is that if the country is not capable of solving the government’s day-to-day problems (paying its bills), it will be less able to convince its partners, or countries in China’s orbit, of the advantages of being its ally.
“Crisis at home complicates Biden’s foreign diplomacy,” headlined a front-page analysis in The New York Times, last Wednesday. “Volatility has become the new norm in Washington,” the caption diagnosed. And the first sentences of the article were devastating: “The president left for Japan to attend a meeting of the leaders of the seven main industrial democracies, who meet every year to try to keep the world economy stable. But it turns out that the main threat to global economic stability this year is the US.
This analysis reveals a fact: the European and international allies are beginning to realize that the US is no longer a source of order in the world. An “order” established during the Cold War based on economic prosperity, but also on wars, the imposition of dictators and the control of financial organizations such as the IMF, alliances such as NATO or their influence in forums such as the G7.
After years of maintaining order in the West at the expense of third countries, the vulnerabilities are behind closed doors. In addition to the debt problem, in the last year the US has suffered the worst banking crisis since 2008, with the collapse of three regional banks that have dragged down the European giant Credit Suisse. In addition, it has had the highest year-on-year inflation in four decades, reaching 9.1% in June 2022which has led to a drastic rise in interest rates by the Federal Reserve.
On the other hand, armed violence continues to be the order of the day in the streets, with 647 mass shootings in 2022 and more than 200 so far this year, according to the organization Gun Violence Archive (which defines a mass shooting as one in which at least four people are killed or injured). And the political violence of far-right organizations such as the Proud Boyslos Patriot Frontlos Oath Keepers or the Three Percenters, is still very present two years after the assault on the Capitol, the largest modern attack on American democracy. These militias and battalions are often seen patrolling the streetsas well as in LGTBI demonstrations and the movement Black Lives Matter.
????????⚔️ The post-fascist organization Patriot Front parades with 200 members through the streets of Washington DC escorted by the police.
This organization is the one that harasses the LGTBI collective and launches attacks against Black Lives Matter.
— Jaime Caro ≛ (@JaimeCaroM) May 14, 2023
“Our biggest threat is ourselves,” Jane Harman, president of the Woodrow Wilson International Center, told the NYT. “Our leadership in the world is being eroded by our internal dysfunction.”
The US is approaching the cliff of debt
The risk of suspension of payments hangs over this country from time to time, and a solution is always found, even if it is on the edge. In the same way that each party is trying to twist the arm of the other to achieve their political objectives, neither wants to go down in history as the first to allow the debt to default – and with it, its interests, its bills, the payrolls of public workers or items such as social security, the Medicare and the Army.
If an agreement is not reached, they will subject the US to a “catastrophic” credit crisis, according to Yellen, which would drag the West and the entire world down. And in the country they know that this would greatly affect US diplomatic relations. “Countries like Russia and China would like nothing more than for us to default so they can point a finger and say, ‘You see, the US is not a stable and reliable partner,'” said John F. Kirby, a spokesman for the National Security Council. “Our ability to pay our debts is a key part of America’s credibility and leadership around the world.”
It is not the first time that a US president has canceled a trip abroad for domestic reasons. So did George HW Bush in 1991 to prioritize the economy in crisis; Bill Clinton in 1995 during a government shutdown; Barack Obama in 2010 to focus on healthcare legislation and, in 2013, during his own government shutdown (due to a budget no-deal, as Republicans refused to fund his so-called healthcare program). Obamacare).
In the case of Biden, due to the debt ceiling, he has cut back on his visit to Asia Pacific, a region that has become a priority for US aspirations. Since Obama, but especially with Trump and Biden, the country has been seeking military alliances between the eastern countries to contain the expansion of China. And recently, the current president has reinforced his military presence in South Korea, Japan and the Philippines, in addition to beginning to materialize the Aukus pact (Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States) and the diplomatic alliance of the Quads (Australia, India, Japan and USA).
Coincidentally, the largest holder of US debt is China, with more than $850 billion in Treasury securities. As tensions between the two powers have increased, the Asian Giant has been getting rid of part of this debt: if in 2013 it had 1.3 trillion dollars, now it has 450,000 million less.
China has already accused the US of “sabotaging” the efforts of other countries to resolve their debt problems: “the greatest contribution the US can make to debt problems abroad is to pursue responsible monetary policies, deal with its own debt problem and stop sabotaging other sovereign countries’ active efforts to resolve their debt problems,” the Chinese Embassy in Zambia said.
The Asian country is the world’s largest creditor, not only of the US, but also of developing countries, and has been criticized for its lack of commitment to reduce the debt burden in those countries. But, even so, year after year the US continues to gain diplomatic ground around the world, with its policy of “non-interference” in the internal affairs of other countries, its investments in infrastructure within the framework of the “Silk Road” and its expanding soft power.
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