Experts told when to expect a “bubble” in the housing market
The total amount of household debt on mortgage loans for the year increased by more than 25%. This was announced by the auditor of the Accounts Chamber Natalya Trunova. According to her, the mortgage debt is growing in the context of the general debt burden of the population. Experts told MK about whether a “bubble” has formed in the housing market, whether the crisis is expected and whether banks will take away apartments from debtors after the abolition of the preferential mortgage.
The population’s debts on mortgage loans for the year already amounted to two-thirds of the federal budget revenues, which in 9 months of this year reached almost 18 trillion rubles. “We are witnessing an increase in mortgage arrears,” Natalya Trunova said during the parliamentary hearings. “According to the Central Bank, the debt on housing loans as of November 1, 2021 in Russia as a whole amounted to 11.4 trillion rubles and increased by more than 25% compared to the same date a year earlier.” At the same time, she noted that the growth of mortgage arrears is taking place in the context of the general debt burden of the population. “The level of the debt burden of citizens by the middle of 2021 increased by 8% and amounted to 35% of the total aggregate family income,” the auditor said.
Part of the high demand for housing is due to the action of the preferential mortgage program, which the authorities have extended until June 2022. “At the time of the middle of this year, mortgage loans were issued for 2.69 trillion rubles,” says owner of a construction company Maxim Lazovsky… “So the auditor’s numbers are quite reasonable.” But with such a growth rate of housing lending, a “bubble” may form on the market, especially in conditions when the incomes of Russians are not growing and, according to a number of studies, are today at the level of ten years ago. “If you track a“ bubble ”or not, then you need to pay more attention to the inflation rate and volatility of currencies,” the expert says. You should also take into account the social situation, the dynamics of jobs and employment of the population. ” So far, the trend, especially after the Central Bank rate hike on Friday, is not very pleasant, but not critical, he noted.
In the opinion Marata Khasyanova, expert at the Doverie & Svoboda law firm, in itself, the scale of the issuance of mortgages does not cause concern, as well as the level of overdue debt on the corresponding loans – in November 2021 it was 0.6% according to the Central Bank. However, when assessing the likelihood of a bubble, hidden risks must be taken into account. In an unfavorable economic environment, mortgage holders often increase their credit burden through consumer loans. Back in July 2021, in its Financial Stability Review, the Bank of Russia reported an increase in the level of debt burden of Russians for all types of loans and borrowings to the maximum value for the entire observation period. At the same time, the real scale of the debt burden of citizens can be significantly higher than the reporting: in November, experts from the Central Bank noted that only 4 of the 14 largest players in the sector entered into an agreement with the borrower on the basis of documents that reliably confirm his solvency. By itself, the growth of mortgage lending will not lead to the formation of a “bubble”. But in combination with a boom in consumer lending, the corresponding risks will grow by an order of magnitude, the expert believes.
“We can talk about a bubble in the future 6-10 years,” says Anna Terekhova, head of the sales department of the development company “Marmax”… “The situation is stable now.” Russia lags behind its continental neighbors in terms of per capita supply of quadrant meters. Today we have an indicator of about 21 sq. m in the region, and in Europe 35 sq. m, the expert recalled.
According to Alexander Gutorov, Commercial Director of Strana Development, it is unlikely that the market will face a bursting mortgage bubble in the coming year. Rather, another difficulty is possible – he will face a decrease in demand as mortgages become less available.
Will they take away apartments from Russians if the debt burden becomes unbearable? “Even now, even the only housing is being taken away, this is the practice of the bank as a borrower,” says Maksim Lazovsky. At the beginning, the regulator will work out options for restructuring and postponements for the population, but in critical transactions this will be the case, our interlocutor is sure.
“We do not think that preferential mortgages affect the risks of non-repayment of mortgage payments on a national scale,” believes Yana Glazunova, CEO of VSN Realty. – Preferential mortgages have shown a level of mortgage rates that are comfortable for Russians, within which they fill the housing shortage that has been accumulating in the country for years. We do not expect a drop in prices due to the cancellation of the mortgage. ” A decrease in demand is expected, but people will still buy apartments. However, the rush demand, which took place in 2020-2021, will no longer exist in 2022, the expert believes.
Newspaper headline:
Square meters inflate the “bubble”
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