2023-08-29 17:06:30
The shortage of doctors is expected to last for a long time. Their number should continue to “stagnate” until 2027, before increasing significantly until 2050. If we take into account the growing needs of the aging population, the density will only return to its 2021 level “around 2032 “, According to projections from the Ministry of Health published on Tuesday.
The Department of Statistics of the Ministry (Drees) thus updates a model carried out for the first time in 2021, on the occasion of the National Health Conference, taking into account “the most recent developments in medical demography”. “Under assumptions of constant behavior and legislation”, the model “shows a stagnation in the workforce until 2027, before a fairly significant increase until 2050” or “+ 1.7% average annual growth in the workforce between 2030 and 2,050”, indicates the DREES in a press release.
Care needs that will increase
This first modeling does not include the demographic evolution. In the meantime, the French population will continue to grow and age, increasing the “needs for care”. The “standardized medical density”, which incorporates this data, should “return to its 2021 level only around 2032”, then “start to rise again to be 31% higher than the current density in 2050”, details the Drees. These projections are based on the number of professionals “under the age of 70 in activity”.
“The number of general practitioners in activity continues to decrease” observes the DREES. According to her, France has 500 doctors less than on January 1, 2022. On the side of specialists, on the other hand, the trend is reversed, over the same period, there are 1,300 more specialists.
Taking all doctors into account, the DREEs had 230,143 doctors on January 1, 2023, including 99,457 general practitioners and 130,686 specialists.
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