2023-10-05 12:39:00
It is a real round of 16 that France will play against Italy, Friday October 6 in Lyon, as part of the last qualifying match for Group A of the Rugby World Cup. Before this fourth day of qualifying, France is in the lead with 13 points, ahead of Italy and New Zealand, both tied with 10 points. But only the first two teams can hope to get a ticket to the quarter-finals. So let’s look at the different possible scenarios. Remember that in rugby, a victory offers 4 points, a draw 2 points and a defeat 0 points.
Let’s straight away get rid of the scenario where France wins the match against Italy: it’s the simplest. The Blues would secure first place in Group A and therefore qualification. They would be followed, in all likelihood, by New Zealand – who play Uruguay this Thursday, October 5 in the evening and who should win barring a huge surprise – for whom a draw is enough. If the incredible were to happen – Uruguay wins – then New Zealand could qualify if Italy does not win either an offensive bonus point (you have to score at least four tries) or a defensive bonus point (you have to lose by less than 7 points).
READ ALSO Rugby World Cup: the list of the Blues against Italy revealedIf France and Italy draw, you have to take out a sheet of paper and a pencil. France would have 15 or 16 points (the two points from the draw and possibly a bonus point) and Italy would have 12 or 13 (for the same reason). If New Zealand loses to Uruguay, then France and Italy qualify. If the All Blacks also draw, they would have 12 or 13 points (for the same reason). In the event of a perfect tie between Italy and New Zealand, it is the latter who would qualify, because they beat the Italians (96-17).
France can lose and qualify
If France loses against Italy, it will not necessarily be eliminated. For starters, they can get the defensive bonus point, which would bring them to 14 points and Italy might not take the offensive bonus point and therefore only get 14 points in total. The teams would then be tied and Italy would move ahead in the standings (because they would have won the direct confrontation). In this case, France’s qualification would depend on the All Blacks. For France to be eliminated in this scenario, New Zealand would then have to win their match against Uruguay with the offensive bonus point, to reach 15 points – France having beaten New Zealand (27-13) , 14 points are not enough for the Blacks.
READ ALSO Rugby World Cup: 5 things to know about Maxime Lucu, Antoine Dupont’s replacementThere is finally a scenario where the three teams would be tied with 14 points: France loses with the defensive bonus, Italy wins without the offensive bonus and New Zealand also wins without the offensive bonus. In this case, qualification could have been decided on the difference of points. Before the fourth match, France (+125) and New Zealand (+133) have a huge lead over Italy (-14 points). Italy would therefore have had to win with a gap of more than 70 points from France for the Blues to find themselves eliminated. Which is impossible, because she would no longer get the defensive bonus point in this scenario.
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