2023-10-22 14:20:36
The International Monetary Fund forecasts, in sub-Saharan Africa, economic growth of 3.3% for the year 2023, 4.2% in 2024. The growth rate forecast in DR Congo is 6.7% in 2023 compared to 4. 7% in 2024.
Gaston Mutamba Permission
On October 10, the IMF (International Monetary Fund) published its report entitled “Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa” with the subtitle “A brightening in sight? » According to this document, “barely emerging from the Covid-19 pandemic, countries have suffered a slowdown in the global economy, global inflation, rising borrowing costs and a cost of living crisis. Therefore, growth in 2023 is expected to fall for the second year in a row and stand at 3.3%, compared to 4.0% last year. However, the long-awaited rebound is on the horizon. Inflation is falling, public finances are stabilizing and growth is about to pick up again, reaching 4.0% next year. The outlook is certainly less threatening, but the time has not yet come to declare victory. In many cases, inflation remains too high, borrowing costs remain high, exchange rate pressures persist and political instability continues to raise concerns..
To ensure the looming rebound, the authorities must not relax their stabilization policies, while implementing reforms which will make it possible to both recover the ground lost after four years of crisis and create additional room for maneuver to meet development needs. According to forecasts, global growth will slow down, from 3.5% in 2022 to 3.0% in 2023 and 2.9% in 2024. Remember that the IMF forecasts, in sub-Saharan Africa, economic growth of 3.3 % for the year 2023 which should rise to 4.2% in 2024. The expected growth rate in DR Congo is 6.7% in 2023 compared to 4.7% in 2024. The inflation rate is 19. 1% in 2023 and 10.6% in 2024.
Comparatively, the sub-Saharan African countries which would experience a high growth rate are Niger (11.1%), Senegal (8.8%), Rwanda (7%), Ivory Coast (6.6%) , Burkina Faso (6.4%), Botswana (6.3%). In the 2024 Finance bill, the Congolese government forecasts a GDP growth rate of 6.4% with an inflation rate of 10.4%. If GDP falls to 4.7% in 2024 compared to the 6.7% forecast, this means that budgetary revenues will also fall. The decline in GDP growth in 2024 is explained by the decline in growth in China, our main trading partner. According to the latest projections, China will experience a GDP growth rate of 5.0% in 2023 and 4.2% in 2024. The Congolese economy, based on exports of basic materials, depends on the world economy. , particularly from China. She is extroverted and therefore vulnerable to external shocks. Exports depend almost 95% on extraction products, namely oil and mines (gold, diamonds, copper, cobalt, coltan, tin, etc.). It will be necessary to diversify the economy to create centers of wealth.
When submitting the Finance Bill for the 2024 financial year to the National Assembly on September 15, Prime Minister Sama Lukonde declared that the government’s priorities will be the national defense sector, free education , universal health coverage with free maternity and post-delivery follow-up. He added the diversification of the national economy with more resources for agriculture, fishing and livestock, new special economic zones and infrastructure. This will require that the execution of the State budget corresponds to the budgetary entries. Which is not often the case as demonstrated by the examination of the law reporting on the budget of the central power, financial year 2022. Without diversification of the economy, the country will continue to produce what it does not consume and to consume what it does not produce. The population will continue to experience a precarious situation on a social level, with poverty prevailing throughout the territory.
Gaston Mutamba Permission
Happy
0
0 %
Sad
0
0 %
Excited
0
0 %
Sleepy
0
0 %
Angry
0
0 %
Surprise
0
0 %
#economic #outlook #subSaharan #Africa #bad #Congo #Indépendant