2024-11-01 06:00:00
“It’s the economy, stupid,” launched James Carville, Bill Clinton’s advisor, to summarize his candidate’s strategy against George HW Bush, during the 1992 presidential election. At the time, the Democrat won against his Republican rival, who had focused his campaign on foreign policy . More than thirty years later, this maxim, handed down to posterity, has not aged at all, while the economy emerges as one of the first concerns of American voters before the November 5 elections.
One week after the vote that promises to be closer than ever between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, the issue could once again be decisive. And favor the Republican candidate. “Donald Trump’s brand image remains strongly linked to his past as a businessman, underlines Lydia Saad, director of social research at the American polling institute Gallup, the theme of the economy is therefore one of his major points of strength in this campaign.
Are economic issues a key issue in this election?
Lidia Saad Traditionally, the economy is an important issue during US elections. But we see this to be especially true during this campaign, as it is the top concern of voters nationwide. The sharp rise in inflation seen after the war in Ukraine appears to have been a contributing factor. Unlike many economic issues, which are often relatively abstract for the population – such as GDP growth or the trade balance – inflation is a very palpable phenomenon that affects everyone. This plays a significant role in voters’ perception of the country’s economic situation. It’s a sentiment that Republicans can easily exploit to their advantage.
And even though the inflation rate has dropped significantly in recent months [NDLR : elle s’est stabilisée autour de 2 %]prices remain significantly higher than when Joe Biden took office. Indeed, if the shopping bag that cost them $20 four years ago is now worth $28, this comes as a shock to many consumers. Mainly because it is difficult for people to accurately calculate whether their income has increased proportionally to inflation or not.
In our latest poll, we found that a majority of Americans believe they are “worse off” economically than they were four years ago. This made the economy one of the most powerful themes of this campaign. And the problem will continue to exist as long as prices remain high.
Does Donald Trump have more credibility than Kamala Harris on economic issues?
From our opinion studies we see that Donald Trump’s brand image remains strongly linked to his past as a businessman and that voters tend to believe he is more competent than his opponents in managing economic issues. This was measured by 2016 polls and his first campaign against Hillary Clinton. Subsequently, during his presidency, his approval rating for his economic policies was consistently higher – sometimes by almost 10 points – than his overall popularity rating. Even when his approval rating hit its lowest level – 39% favorable ratings at the start of the Covid pandemic – the approval rating for his economic policies was 47%.
This is one area where it outperforms. Our latest poll showed that even in the Democratic camp, 13% of respondents believe Donald Trump would do a “better job” than Kamala Harris on the economic front. For comparison, only 5% say the same thing for the healthcare sector. Among independents, 59% also prefer Donald Trump to Kamala Harris to deal with the economy. The economy is therefore one of its greatest strengths, especially if this issue emerges as one of the dominant concerns of the campaign.
Conversely, do the Biden administration’s economic performance influence voters’ perception of Kamala Harris’s expertise in this area?
That certainly seems to be the case. Kamala Harris is nine points behind Donald Trump in the perception of who is more competent on economics, while at the same time she is significantly ahead of him on other issues such as abortion or health.
Even though she has not been president for the past four years, she inherits the poor image voters have of Joe Biden’s economic record. Despite her efforts to stand out on the campaign trail, it remains very difficult for her, as vice president, to emerge from the incumbent administration’s shadow on this issue.
Besides the economy, what are voters’ other top concerns?
The situation is very mixed. Two very different worlds collide: Republican voters, worried above all about the economy and immigration, and Democratic voters, who say they are worried about the defense of democracy and the right to abortion and about the question of appointing judges to the Supreme Court. Added to this are undecided and independent voters who share concerns of each of the two sides, such as the economy or the defense of democracy. Society is therefore very divided, with areas of concern that, depending on their nature, can favor both Republicans and Democrats. And this is reflected in every survey.
How to explain Donald Trump’s rise in the latest polls?
It is difficult to provide a definitive answer. But today we are at a stage in the campaign where people generally know what the candidates’ agendas and personalities are. In this context, it is possible that some so-called moderate Republicans, such as those who supported Nikki Haley and were reluctant to vote for Donald Trump, have decided to do so, because the former president’s message resonates more with them than the one worn by Kamala Harris. From a mathematical point of view, this could explain at least in part this tightening of the race in this final phase of the campaign.
Does this vote promise to be one of the closest in recent American history?
The vote could in fact be closer than the last two elections in 2016 and 2020. However, I don’t think it could be closer than the one in 2000, which pitted Al Gore against George W. Bush. The real unknown is whether the polls do not find an increase in turnout in one camp or the other, which could tip the scales more significantly than expected for one of the two candidates. Indeed, we have had examples of this situation in recent elections. But at this point, the election is shaping up to be very close, so I’ll be careful not to make any predictions about who will win.
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#economy #greatest #strengths #LExpress
Interview between Time.news Editor and Lydia Saad, Director of Social Research at Gallup
Editor: Welcome, Lydia Saad, and thank you for joining us today to discuss what seems to be shaping up as a huge factor in the approaching 2024 presidential elections. Many have said, “It’s the economy, stupid,” but how does that apply in today’s political climate?
Lydia Saad: Thank you for having me! The quote still resonates powerfully today. Economic issues remain at the forefront of voters’ concerns, especially with inflation being a very tangible issue that affects their daily lives. This election cycle, we’re seeing voters significantly leaning towards economic competence as a deciding factor.
Editor: With inflation having spiked recently, how have voters’ perceptions of their economic situation shifted?
Lydia Saad: There’s been a noticeable shift. Despite the inflation rate stabilizing around 2% recently, many Americans feel worse off than they did four years ago because prices for essentials remain much higher. For instance, something that cost $20 four years ago now costs $28. This stark increase is hard for consumers to ignore, and it influences their voting mindset heavily.
Editor: So, Donald Trump seems to be leveraging his business background effectively in this campaign. Do polls show that he has a distinct advantage over Kamala Harris on economic issues?
Lydia Saad: Absolutely. Our recent surveys indicate that Trump still carries a strong association with his business experience, which gives him an edge. Interestingly, even among Democratic voters, some acknowledge that Trump might manage the economy better than Harris. The contrast is particularly stark—whereas Trump has a sizeable advantage in economic competence, the same doesn’t apply to other issues like healthcare.
Editor: This messaging appears particularly effective. But how much does the Biden administration’s economic performance affect Harris’s standing in this area?
Lydia Saad: It affects her quite a bit. Many voters attribute Biden’s economic policies to Harris, despite her efforts to carve out her own path. Consequently, she’s viewed as less competent on economic issues, which undermines her campaigning. However, she does excel in areas like abortion rights and healthcare, which resonate strongly with many Democratic voters.
Editor: You mentioned the polarization of voter concerns. What are the primary issues on either side of the political spectrum?
Lydia Saad: You’re right; we’re seeing two distinct camps. Republican voters mainly focus on the economy and immigration, while Democratic voters center around issues like democracy preservation and reproductive rights. Independent voters are caught in between, often sharing concerns from both sides. This bifurcation can significantly influence campaign strategies and voter turnout.
Editor: With such a strong focus on the economy, do you think this will be the deciding factor in the election?
Lydia Saad: It’s certainly shaping up to be a major deciding factor. Given the current sentiments around inflation and economic stability, candidates need to focus their platforms effectively. For Trump, leveraging his business brand alongside pressing economic concerns could tip the scales in his favor—especially if people feel it’s a matter that affects their day-to-day lives.
Editor: That’s a captivating perspective, Lydia. With each passing day leading up to the election, the dynamics seem to evolve. Just how tight do you foresee the race getting as we approach November?
Lydia Saad: It’s going to be incredibly close. We’re already seeing shifts in polls as voters engage more intensely with the issues. The candidates must focus on their economic messaging, as well as addressing the diverse set of concerns from various voter segments. In such a polarized environment, every issue will be pivotal, and how they manipulate these narratives could very well determine the winner.
Editor: Thank you, Lydia, for your invaluable insights. It seems like we’re on the brink of an interesting election cycle with the economy firmly in the spotlight.
Lydia Saad: Absolutely! Thank you for having me, and I look forward to seeing how these themes evolve in the coming weeks.
