Does a summer of extreme weather events and an autumn of tension over energy have an impact on the state of opinion and change the political field? Here are the lessons of the tenth wave of the “French Fractures” barometer, carried out by Ipsos-Sopra Steria for The world, the Jean-Jaurès Foundation and the Sciences Po Center for Political Research (Cevipof). First of all, the environment is everyone’s priority and more than a few. Confirmed by all the surveys carried out this year, this is the second priority – cited by 34% of the panellists. The environment is far behind purchasing power (54%), but clearly ahead of the future of pensions and the health system (26%), immigration (18%) or security (18%) .
Confirmation here again, this priority is widely shared whether one is a woman or a man, rich or poor, rural or urban and even young or old – the 18-24 year olds are certainly more numerous than the over 70s to cite the environment as a priority (with a gap of almost 20 points) but, regardless of age, the environment is the second priority.
There is now consensus on the reality of climate change, but only a majority agrees on the causes of this change. French and international news has undoubtedly accelerated awareness: nearly 90% of French people consider that “we are experiencing climate change”. On the other hand, only 61% of French people share the IPCC consensus on the causes of this change, i.e. “mainly human activity” – the others considering in particular that it is a ” natural phenomenon “ (16%) or that we “can’t know” (8 %).
This skepticism is split: it is more the result of the oldest (27 points difference between the 18-24 year olds and the over 70s), the less qualified (22 points difference between those without a diploma and the bac + 5), but also sympathizers of the extreme right (57 points of difference between the sympathizers of Europe Ecology-The Greens and the sympathizers of Reconquest!).
Not in the blissful technicality
Another lesson: the French are expecting profound changes. They are not in desperate fatalism: only 10% believe that we “can’t do anything” to combat climate change. They are not blissfully technical: only 14% think that the solution will come from scientific innovations. Nor are they into violent activism either: 73% (but only 52% of EELV sympathizers and 49% of those of La France insoumise) consider “unacceptable” violence during militant ecological actions or demonstrations. They are, on the contrary, 68% to plead for an in-depth change – whether it is about our lifestyles (30%), or the production methods of companies (38%).
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