After six months, the monkeypox epidemic – which the World Health Organization now recommends calling “mpox” – seems to have almost disappeared in France. Between 1is and on November 15, only seven new cases were detected in the territory. In total, some 4,100 people have been diagnosed with this virus from the smallpox family. The overwhelming majority (97%) of cases are adult males – 108 (2.6%) are female and twelve (0.29%) are children. No deaths are to be deplored on French soil. The risk of resurgence has not completely disappeared, however, since the virus continues to circulate in many countries around the world, particularly in South America, where Brazil, in particular, is observing a high plateau in its epidemic. Globally, there are more than 77,000 cases.
“The most likely scenario in the medium and long term is that of maintaining low-noise viral circulation on a European scale, making the hypothesis of the complete elimination of monkeypox virus infection unlikely and leading to a risk of epidemic or even seasonal outbreaks in France and in Europe”writes the committee for monitoring and anticipating health risks (Covars) in its second opinion published on Monday, November 28.
Vaccinate people at risk
The epidemic risk can come from several places: the countries that have been affected by the unprecedented epidemic of the last six months; African countries, such as Cameroon, the Central African Republic or the Democratic Republic of Congo, where the virus is endemic and where the virus causing the current epidemic originated; and, finally, the “zoonotic reservoir”, ie contamination of humans by domestic or wild animals. “A rebound scenario cannot be ruled out, but it is not the preferred scenario”however tempers Simon Cauchemez, modeler at the Pasteur Institute and member of Covars.
To prevent this catastrophic scenario, the scientists thus plead for a complete vaccination, at two doses, of all people at risk, i.e. men who have sex with other men, and people trans with multiple sexual partners, people who prostitute themselves as well as their close entourage. A population estimated at some 300,000 people by the High Authority for Health.
Of the 132,750 injections performed in France on November 17, we only know that around 20,000 are second injections. “We did not benefit, for monkeypox, from the same interconnection of databases as for Covid, so we do not know today how many people have received two doses of vaccineregrets Brigitte Autran, infectious disease specialist and president of Covars. Large-scale cohort studies are needed to assess population immunity because the risk of reintroduction of the virus will depend on the level of vaccination. » Studies show that a single injection induces only low levels of neutralizing antibodies, which increase only after the second injection.
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