The European Commission has sharply raised its forecast for the average annual price of Brent crude for 2022 to $ 78.9 per barrel from $ 68.3. This is stated in published on Thursday, November 11, the autumn economic forecast of the department. Among the factors that influenced the revision of spring expectations, the EC named the reduction in shale oil production in the United States.
The document notes that the average oil price this year will be $ 71.6 (against the May forecast of $ 68.7) and will reach its maximum value in the IV quarter. In 2023, the regulator predicted a decrease in the average price to $ 72.3 per barrel – this forecast is given for the first time. Earlier, Bank of America predicted that the North Sea benchmark would rise to $ 120 by the end of the first half of 2022.
In addition, the European Commission has improved its estimate of the annual GDP growth rate of the euro area for 2021 to 5%. The forecast for 2022 was worsened to 4.3% compared to the spring one. This figure is expected to drop to 2.4% in 2023.
Forecast for Russia’s GDP growth for 2021 and 2022 revised upward compared to the previous spring estimate – up to 3.9% and 2.6%, respectively. By 2023, the EC expects the Russian economy to grow at 2.2%.
The estimate based on the dynamics of the US GDP fell to 5.8%, and in 2022 it increased to 4.5%. In 2023, the US economy will show 2.4% growth, the EC believes. The forecast for China’s GDP growth for the current year remained at 7.9%, but was deteriorated for 2022 by one percentage point to 5.3%, follows from the document. An increase of 5.3% is expected in 2023.
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