Afraid of the unborn Iranian nuclear bomb? What do you think is happening with the Germans, the Czechs, the Poles and the other countries close to Russia regarding the thousands of nuclear bombs that the Russians already have and some of them are aimed at them?
Let’s ask one more thing: some of us think Putin is crazy. Is it a good idea to press him against the wall with his nukes? And he’s already threatening those bombs again, so are we sure that a barking dog doesn’t bite?
Some say there is no choice because Russia needs to be broken. Well, that probably won’t happen. why? Let’s start by saying that superpowers don’t raise a white flag. We will add to this the Russian citizen who is ready to suffer for Mother Russia and Father Putin. Their economy was also not really harmed by the sanctions (probably a drop in GDP of only 4%) due to their ability to divert sales of gas and oil, whose prices have risen sharply, to China, India and more. And perhaps the most important, the dead Russian soldiers, which the West religiously counts, are almost all from the distant ethnic republics, so the average Russian is not bothered at all.
On the other hand, the Russia-Ukraine war brought the spoiled Europeans to a situation of economic difficulties, energy insecurity, renewed damage to the quality of the environment, fear of war that will unfold before them and even a threat of nuclear war. Social and psychological pressures that have never been encountered. General Winter is approaching and they are in great anxiety, the whole complex is traumatic for them. The Ukrainians are ready to “go all the way” but what price are the Europeans willing to pay personally? Therefore, there is a higher probability that they are the ones who will break first and start pressuring the Ukrainians to come down from the tree and reach a ceasefire.
Today’s macroeconomic analyzes cannot be separated from geopolitics. In military intelligence, they try to look at the world through the eyes of the enemy, in order to better understand his judgment and future moves. Let’s look at things with Russian, not Western, eyes. Talk to your Russian friends, who immigrated to Israel but remain Russian in their soul and who read and see what is happening inside Russia. Is this the same picture as reflected to us, the consumers of the Western press? You will be surprised.
Do the Russians think they are in dire straits?
It seemed that the global sanctions were giving the Russians a terrible snooker. But there is no vacuum in nature and probably not in the global economy either. Since the sanctions were not absolute and the Europeans continued to buy gas from the Russians, it was not possible to force other countries ethically and practically not to buy from the Russians.
The Chinese, for example, buy oil and gas from the Russians at a discount of about 10% from the official market price. So is probably everything else. This is also true regarding the Russian fertilizers, wheat and more. Due to the dramatic jump in gas and oil prices, the Russians are generally profitable in these sectors.
Although the sanctions brought about a dramatic and amazing step in which about 800 international companies abandoned Russia and another 170 reduced their activities and this definitely hurts the little citizen. But it must be remembered that this is a rugged and resilient population that experienced the collapse of the USSR and the very difficult 90’s.
More than that – this is not a country that feels it is on the brink of military defeat. Definately not. The number of wartime casualties is a state secret in Russia and revealing them is punishable by up to seven years in prison. The American Ministry of Defense estimates the number of victims at about 80 thousand, of which 20 thousand soldiers were killed. This is the worst result for the Russian army since World War II. Any democracy would have already sought a ceasefire. But Russia? It’s terrible to say this, but many Russians see the dead as “cannon fodder”, ethnic soldiers recruited from the distant republics of the Russian Federation. An analysis carried out by the BBC shows that ethnic minorities make up a disproportionate part of the casualties and the gap is astonishing: for every soldier killed in Moscow, the most populous region in Russia, there were, for example, 87.5 from the Caucasus region of Dagestan, and 350 killed from the Republic of Tova, an area in Central Asia bordering Mongolia. The average Russian does not send his sons to the army and Putin does not dare to announce general conscription for exactly the same reason. True, he has now announced the recruitment of 300,000 reservists, but the majority of these reservists also belong to those distant republics. So if the average Russian, “the beating heart of Russia” does not send his sons to Ukraine, then there is certainly a lot of Russian breathing space.
On the other hand, the Ukrainian losses are very high and there citizens are paying with their lives and the country is also being destroyed, part of it in an extremely difficult way. But the Ukrainians are also a tough people and justice and the West are on their side and it seems that they have made a decision to “go to the end” no matter what.
General Winter had previously driven away the French and the Germans
Europeans today are spoiled. This is not surprising. Nations that have not experienced wars nor significant acts of terrorism in their territory since WWII. In most of Europe, the population has been living a good and peaceful life, certainly since 1991 with the fall of the USSR. And here comes a really difficult test concerning their resilience and social unity following the price increases and the severe winter damage that poor and elderly populations may experience. History shows that “General Winter” drove Napoleon out of Russia in 1812 and the Nazis in 1943. Almost another 80 years have passed since then and winter is coming again. Winter is coming.
It is always important to remember that most of the European nations, certainly the main ones, are nations where the social issue is very central to their existence as well as the issue of environmental quality. Many voices are already heard shouting the cry of the lower deciles, following the huge inflationary jump. The greens also find it very difficult to digest the reactivation of nuclear reactors, coal-based power plants and gas exploration.
The Russia-Ukraine war brought the spoiled Europeans to a situation of economic difficulties, acute energy insecurity, renewed damage to the quality of the environment, fear of a war unfolding before them and even the threat of a nuclear war. These are social and psychological pressures that they have never encountered and it is traumatic for them.
It is also important to remember that in democracies the politicians try to hear and respond to the murmurings of the people and the murmuring among the Europeans grows all the time, as it becomes clear how difficult it is on a daily level, how much it leads to the collapse of European industries, increases government spending, internal and external debts, budget deficits and defense spending. And they really don’t like what they see. And all this suffering for whom? For the Ukrainians who are not part of the European Union? And for what? On the Donbass region?
We must not forget that they are neighbors of the Russians and a wide war if it breaks out will be on their land. The US will help, but the Americans are physically far away and their land is not threatened. So it is quite likely that they will break first and start pressuring the Ukrainians to enter into ceasefire negotiations. Why would the Ukrainians agree? Because they will have no choice. They are completely dependent on the physical supply lines of the Europeans, of civilian and military equipment and will also want their money the day after the war, to rebuild Ukraine.
Do we want to be smart or right? It is worth keeping the Russian honor
Some hope the war will continue until Putin falls. Suppose this miracle happens. Who is there to replace him with a leader who will be more friendly to the West? It should be remembered that Putin was more favorable to the West than all the previous rulers of Russia in the last hundred years (except Gorbachev, who did it out of choice).
Some commentators think that it is worth breaking and humiliating the Russians. But to “teach a lesson” and humiliate an authoritarian nuclear state, a country whose almost all residents support Putin for reasons of patriotism and national pride, doesn’t sound like a very smart strategy. Actually this sounds like a stupid strategy even, when you remember the history.
Israeli intelligence believes that perhaps the main reason Sadat was willing to sign a peace agreement was that the Egyptians felt they had regained their honor in what they believed to be a heroic victory in the Yom Kippur War, after their defeat in the Six Day War. If it weren’t for their “victory”, they probably wouldn’t have signed. The “Versailles Treaty” at the end of the First World War, which demanded heavy reparations payments from the Germans that caused the collapse of their economy, contributed significantly to the strengthening of extremist elements, including the Nazi Party. The agreement increased the humiliation that Germany felt after the defeat and is considered by many historians to be a major factor that precipitated the outbreak of World War II.
So what do we want to be wise or right? Being right means suffocating the Russian people who support Putin, inflicting a decisive blow on their economy, hurting and humiliating them and dragging the war to a situation that could lead to a nuclear flare-up. To be smart is to pressure the Ukrainians to stop now and try to reach a ceasefire. True, it is a compromise against a despicable aggressor, but with nuclear weapons. It’s annoying and unfair but the other options are much worse. Some European decision makers already understand this.
We must also not forget: the Chinese leadership looks on with pleasure at everything that is happening, because their ultimate goal is for the West to weaken and for them to rise faster to the stage as the number one power.
Dr. Adam Reuter Chairman of Hysonim Finance, Chairman of Hedgewiz, co-author of the book “Israel’s Story of Success”